Do Tourism Indicators Have an Influence on Unemployment? Case of Selected Balkan Countries
Nataša Pavlović - Tourism Organization of Vojvodina, Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 18, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
Vera Mirović - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000, Subotica, Serbia
Branimir Kalaš - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000, Subotica, Serbia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2023-2024.47
Nataša Pavlović - Tourism Organization of Vojvodina, Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 18, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
Vera Mirović - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000, Subotica, Serbia
Branimir Kalaš - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000, Subotica, Serbia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2023-2024.47
8th International Thematic Monograph - Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, Belgrade, 2023/2024, Published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia; ISSN 2683-5673, ISBN 978-86-80194-81-3 ; Editors: Vuk Bevanda, associate professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia; Snežana Štetić, full time professor, The College of Tourism, Belgrade, Serbia, Printed by: SKRIPTA International, Belgrade
Abstract: Tourism represents one of the most rapidly growing sectors in the world. This study aims to identify the effect of tourism indicators on the unemployment rate. The subject of the study implies evaluating the effect of international tourism revenues and international tourism arrivals on unemployment in selected Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia) for the period 2007-2020. The empirical findings confirmed that given tourism indicators negatively influence unemployment on the panel level. It means that a higher level of international tourism revenues and a greater number of international tourism arrivals decrease unemployment rates. The obtained results indicate that these economies should pay more attention to the share of the tourism sector in their economic structure to enable lucrative effects on their economic prosperities.
Keywords: Tourism; Unemployment; Effects; Different panel techniques; Balkan countries
REFERENCES
Alegre, J., Pou, L., & Sard, M. (2018). High unemployment and tourism participation. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(10), 1138-1149. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1464550
Aykac, A. (2010). Tourism Employment: Towards an Integrated Policy Approach. An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 21(1), 11-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/1 3032917.2010.9687087
Bakri, N. M., Jaafar, M., & Mohamad, D. (2014). Perceptions of Local Communities on the Economic Impacts of Tourism Development in Langkawi, Malaysia. SHS Web of Conferences, 12, 01100. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20141201100
Băndoi, A., Jianu, E., Enescu, M., Axinte, G., Tudor, S., & Firoiu, D. (2020). The Relationship between Development of Tourism, Quality of Life and Sustainable Performance in EU Countries. Sustainability, 12(4), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041628
Banerjee, O., Cicowiez, M., Morris, E. J., & Moreda, A. (2018). Boosting tourism’s contribution to growth and development: Analysis of the evidence. Review of Development Economics, 22(3), 1296-1320. https://doi.org/10.111/rode.12385
Chingarande, A., & Saayman, A. (2018). Critical success factors for tourism-led growth. International Journal of Tourism Research, 20(6), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2233
Condratov, I. (2017). The relation between tourism and unemployment: A panel data approach. Journal of tourism – studies and tourism research. 23, 1-6.
Dogru, T., Işik, C., & Sirakaya-Turk, E. (2019). The balance of trade and exchange rates: Theory and contemporary evidence from tourism. Tourism Management, 74, 12-23. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.01.014
Eyuboglu, S., & Eyuboglu, K. (2019). Tourism development and economic growth: an asymmetric panel causality test. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(6), 659–665. https://doi.org/10.1 080/13683500.2019.1588863
Gnangnon, S. K. (2020). Impact of international tourism receipts on public revenue in developed and developing countries. Tourism Review, 75(5), 809–826. https://doi.org/10.1108/ tr-07-2018-0090
Gričar, S., Bojnec, Š., Karadžić, V., & Backović Vulić, T. (2021). Tourism-led economic growth in Montenegro and Slovenia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. 34(1), 3401- 3420. https://doi.org /10.1080/1331677X.2021.1875858
Hoarau, J.-F. (2022). Is international tourism responsible for the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic? A cross-country analysis with a special focus on small islands. Review of World Economics, 158, 493-528. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-021-00438-x
Huseynli, B. (2022). A Research on Econometric Analysis of Tourism Sector, Economic Growth and Unemployment Indicators in Turkey. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 6(62), 1629-1636.
Južnik Rotar, L., Gričar, S., & Bojnec, Š. (2023). The relationship between tourism and employment: evidence from the Alps-Adriatic country. Economic Research – Ekonomska istraživanja, 36(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2080737
Kyara, V. C., Rahman, M. M., & Khanam, R. (2021). Tourism expansion and economic growth in Tanzania: A causality analysis. Heliyon, 7(5), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021. e06966
Lapointe, D. (2020). Reconnecting tourism after COVID-19: the paradox of alterity in tourism areas. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1762115
Manzoor, F., Wei, L., Asif, M., Zia ul, M., & ur Rehman, H. (2019). The Contribution of Sustainable Tourism to Economic Growth and Employment in Pakistan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(19), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.3390/ ijerph16193785
Matijova, M., Onuferova, E., Rigelsky, M., & Stanko, V. (2019). Impact of Selected Indicators of Tourism Capacity and Performance in the Context of the Unemployment Rate in Slovakia. Journal of Tourism and Services, 10(19), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.29036/jots.v10i19.95
Mirović, V., Kalaš, B., Milenković, N., & Andrašić, J. (2022). Profitability management of tourism sector in AP Vojvodina. Strategic Management, 27(1), 57-63. https://doi.org/10.5937/ StraMan2110004M
Mirović, V., Kalaš, B., Milenković, N., Andrašić, J., & Đaković, M. (2024). Modelling Profitability Determinants in the Banking Sector: The Case of the Eurozone. Mathematics, 12(6), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/math120608897
Mirović, V., Kalaš, B., & Pavlović, N. (2020). An empirical analysis of relationship between tourism and economic growth: Panel evidence from Western Balkan countries. 5th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era. 39-52. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.39
Mirović, V., Pavlović, N., & Kalaš, B. (2023). Estimating International Tourism Indicators in Context of Macroeconomic Stability and Fiscal Sustainability in the Republic of Serbia. 7th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era. 91-103. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2022-2023.91
Nestorović, O., & Aničić, D. (2019). Development of tourism in the function of reducing unemployment in Serbia. Tourism International Scientific Conference Vrnjačka Banja – TISC, 4(1), 97-112.
Nguyen, C. P., Binh, P. T., & Su, T. D. (2020). Capital Investment in Tourism: A Global Investigation. Tourism Planning & Development, 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/21568316.2020.1857825
Niewiadomski, P. (2020). COVID-19: from temporary de-globalisation to a re-discovery of tourism? Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1757749
Önder, K., & Durgun, A. (2008). Effects of Tourism Sector on the Employment in Turkey: An Econometric Application; Epoka University Press, 365–373.
Petcu, M. A., & Cismasu, I. D. (2019). Tourism: A contribution to the sustainable economic growth. Quality – Access to Success, 20(2), 460-466.
Pulido-Fernandez, J. I., & Pulido-Fernandez, M. D. (2018). Proposal for an indicators system of tourism governance a tourism destination level. Social Indicators Research, 137(2), 695- 743. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-017-1627-z
Qin, M., Su, C. W., & Zhang, S.-P. (2020). Tourism and Unemployment in Hong Kong: Is There Any Interaction? Asian Economics Letters, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.17222
Sánchez López, F. (2019). Unemployment and Growth in the Tourism Sector in Mexico: Revisiting the Growth-Rate Version of Okun’s Law. Economies, 7(3), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/ economies7030083
Sánchez López, F. (2024). Tourism and Economic Misery: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Mexico. Economies 12(4), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12040088
Schubert, S. F. (2013). Unemployment dynamics in a short-run two-sector model of a tourism exporting small open economy. Tourism Economics, 19(5), 1049-1076. https://doi. org/10.5367/te.2013.0334
Škare, M., Soriano, D. R., & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the Travel and Tourism Industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 163, 1-14. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469
Su, Y., Cheria, J., Sial, M. S., Baduelscu, A., Thu, P. A., Badulescu, D., & Samad, S. (2021). Does Tourism Affect Economic Growth of China? A Panel Granger Causality Approach. Sustainability, 13(3), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031349
Supriyadi, E., & Kausar, D. R. K. (2017). The economic impact of international tourism to overcome the unemployment and the poverty in Indonesia. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 8(2), 451-459. https://doi.org/10.14505/jemt.v8.2(18).18
TheGlobalEconomy.com. (n.d.-a). Unemployment rate - Country rankings. https://www. theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/Unemployment_rate/
TheGlobalEconomy.com. (n.d.-b). International tourism revenue to GDP - Country rankings. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/international_tourism_revenue_to_GDP/
TheGlobalEconomy.com. (n.d.-c). Tourist arrivals - Country rankings. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/tourist_arrivals/
Xuanming, P., Dossou, T. A. M., Dossou, K. P., & Alinsato, A. S. (2024). The impact of tourism development on social welfare in Africa: quantile regression analysis. Current Issues in Tourism 27(7), 1159-1172. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2023.2214351
Yi, J. T. H., Roslan, U. R., Kadir, N. H., Abdullah, N. A., Abisuan, N. S., Ishak, N., Yusoff, S. N. M., & Muniran, A. (2020). Analysis on the Relationship between Tourist Arrival and Unemployment in Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Technopreneurship, 10(2), 269-278.
Zhao, J., Yang, D., Zhao, X., & Lei, M. (2023). Tourism industry and employment generation in emerging seven economies: evidence from novel panel methods. Economic Research-Ekonomska istraživanja 36(3), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2023.2206471
Zhong, C., Lou, W., & Lai, Y. (2023). A Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster Model for Tourism Safety Early Warning and Its Implications for Sustainable Tourism. Mathematics 11(24), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11244919
Keywords: Tourism; Unemployment; Effects; Different panel techniques; Balkan countries
REFERENCES
Alegre, J., Pou, L., & Sard, M. (2018). High unemployment and tourism participation. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(10), 1138-1149. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1464550
Aykac, A. (2010). Tourism Employment: Towards an Integrated Policy Approach. An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 21(1), 11-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/1 3032917.2010.9687087
Bakri, N. M., Jaafar, M., & Mohamad, D. (2014). Perceptions of Local Communities on the Economic Impacts of Tourism Development in Langkawi, Malaysia. SHS Web of Conferences, 12, 01100. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20141201100
Băndoi, A., Jianu, E., Enescu, M., Axinte, G., Tudor, S., & Firoiu, D. (2020). The Relationship between Development of Tourism, Quality of Life and Sustainable Performance in EU Countries. Sustainability, 12(4), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041628
Banerjee, O., Cicowiez, M., Morris, E. J., & Moreda, A. (2018). Boosting tourism’s contribution to growth and development: Analysis of the evidence. Review of Development Economics, 22(3), 1296-1320. https://doi.org/10.111/rode.12385
Chingarande, A., & Saayman, A. (2018). Critical success factors for tourism-led growth. International Journal of Tourism Research, 20(6), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2233
Condratov, I. (2017). The relation between tourism and unemployment: A panel data approach. Journal of tourism – studies and tourism research. 23, 1-6.
Dogru, T., Işik, C., & Sirakaya-Turk, E. (2019). The balance of trade and exchange rates: Theory and contemporary evidence from tourism. Tourism Management, 74, 12-23. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.01.014
Eyuboglu, S., & Eyuboglu, K. (2019). Tourism development and economic growth: an asymmetric panel causality test. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(6), 659–665. https://doi.org/10.1 080/13683500.2019.1588863
Gnangnon, S. K. (2020). Impact of international tourism receipts on public revenue in developed and developing countries. Tourism Review, 75(5), 809–826. https://doi.org/10.1108/ tr-07-2018-0090
Gričar, S., Bojnec, Š., Karadžić, V., & Backović Vulić, T. (2021). Tourism-led economic growth in Montenegro and Slovenia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. 34(1), 3401- 3420. https://doi.org /10.1080/1331677X.2021.1875858
Hoarau, J.-F. (2022). Is international tourism responsible for the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic? A cross-country analysis with a special focus on small islands. Review of World Economics, 158, 493-528. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-021-00438-x
Huseynli, B. (2022). A Research on Econometric Analysis of Tourism Sector, Economic Growth and Unemployment Indicators in Turkey. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 6(62), 1629-1636.
Južnik Rotar, L., Gričar, S., & Bojnec, Š. (2023). The relationship between tourism and employment: evidence from the Alps-Adriatic country. Economic Research – Ekonomska istraživanja, 36(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2080737
Kyara, V. C., Rahman, M. M., & Khanam, R. (2021). Tourism expansion and economic growth in Tanzania: A causality analysis. Heliyon, 7(5), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021. e06966
Lapointe, D. (2020). Reconnecting tourism after COVID-19: the paradox of alterity in tourism areas. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1762115
Manzoor, F., Wei, L., Asif, M., Zia ul, M., & ur Rehman, H. (2019). The Contribution of Sustainable Tourism to Economic Growth and Employment in Pakistan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(19), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.3390/ ijerph16193785
Matijova, M., Onuferova, E., Rigelsky, M., & Stanko, V. (2019). Impact of Selected Indicators of Tourism Capacity and Performance in the Context of the Unemployment Rate in Slovakia. Journal of Tourism and Services, 10(19), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.29036/jots.v10i19.95
Mirović, V., Kalaš, B., Milenković, N., & Andrašić, J. (2022). Profitability management of tourism sector in AP Vojvodina. Strategic Management, 27(1), 57-63. https://doi.org/10.5937/ StraMan2110004M
Mirović, V., Kalaš, B., Milenković, N., Andrašić, J., & Đaković, M. (2024). Modelling Profitability Determinants in the Banking Sector: The Case of the Eurozone. Mathematics, 12(6), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/math120608897
Mirović, V., Kalaš, B., & Pavlović, N. (2020). An empirical analysis of relationship between tourism and economic growth: Panel evidence from Western Balkan countries. 5th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era. 39-52. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.39
Mirović, V., Pavlović, N., & Kalaš, B. (2023). Estimating International Tourism Indicators in Context of Macroeconomic Stability and Fiscal Sustainability in the Republic of Serbia. 7th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era. 91-103. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2022-2023.91
Nestorović, O., & Aničić, D. (2019). Development of tourism in the function of reducing unemployment in Serbia. Tourism International Scientific Conference Vrnjačka Banja – TISC, 4(1), 97-112.
Nguyen, C. P., Binh, P. T., & Su, T. D. (2020). Capital Investment in Tourism: A Global Investigation. Tourism Planning & Development, 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/21568316.2020.1857825
Niewiadomski, P. (2020). COVID-19: from temporary de-globalisation to a re-discovery of tourism? Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1757749
Önder, K., & Durgun, A. (2008). Effects of Tourism Sector on the Employment in Turkey: An Econometric Application; Epoka University Press, 365–373.
Petcu, M. A., & Cismasu, I. D. (2019). Tourism: A contribution to the sustainable economic growth. Quality – Access to Success, 20(2), 460-466.
Pulido-Fernandez, J. I., & Pulido-Fernandez, M. D. (2018). Proposal for an indicators system of tourism governance a tourism destination level. Social Indicators Research, 137(2), 695- 743. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-017-1627-z
Qin, M., Su, C. W., & Zhang, S.-P. (2020). Tourism and Unemployment in Hong Kong: Is There Any Interaction? Asian Economics Letters, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.17222
Sánchez López, F. (2019). Unemployment and Growth in the Tourism Sector in Mexico: Revisiting the Growth-Rate Version of Okun’s Law. Economies, 7(3), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/ economies7030083
Sánchez López, F. (2024). Tourism and Economic Misery: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Mexico. Economies 12(4), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12040088
Schubert, S. F. (2013). Unemployment dynamics in a short-run two-sector model of a tourism exporting small open economy. Tourism Economics, 19(5), 1049-1076. https://doi. org/10.5367/te.2013.0334
Škare, M., Soriano, D. R., & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the Travel and Tourism Industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 163, 1-14. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469
Su, Y., Cheria, J., Sial, M. S., Baduelscu, A., Thu, P. A., Badulescu, D., & Samad, S. (2021). Does Tourism Affect Economic Growth of China? A Panel Granger Causality Approach. Sustainability, 13(3), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031349
Supriyadi, E., & Kausar, D. R. K. (2017). The economic impact of international tourism to overcome the unemployment and the poverty in Indonesia. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 8(2), 451-459. https://doi.org/10.14505/jemt.v8.2(18).18
TheGlobalEconomy.com. (n.d.-a). Unemployment rate - Country rankings. https://www. theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/Unemployment_rate/
TheGlobalEconomy.com. (n.d.-b). International tourism revenue to GDP - Country rankings. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/international_tourism_revenue_to_GDP/
TheGlobalEconomy.com. (n.d.-c). Tourist arrivals - Country rankings. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/tourist_arrivals/
Xuanming, P., Dossou, T. A. M., Dossou, K. P., & Alinsato, A. S. (2024). The impact of tourism development on social welfare in Africa: quantile regression analysis. Current Issues in Tourism 27(7), 1159-1172. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2023.2214351
Yi, J. T. H., Roslan, U. R., Kadir, N. H., Abdullah, N. A., Abisuan, N. S., Ishak, N., Yusoff, S. N. M., & Muniran, A. (2020). Analysis on the Relationship between Tourist Arrival and Unemployment in Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Technopreneurship, 10(2), 269-278.
Zhao, J., Yang, D., Zhao, X., & Lei, M. (2023). Tourism industry and employment generation in emerging seven economies: evidence from novel panel methods. Economic Research-Ekonomska istraživanja 36(3), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2023.2206471
Zhong, C., Lou, W., & Lai, Y. (2023). A Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster Model for Tourism Safety Early Warning and Its Implications for Sustainable Tourism. Mathematics 11(24), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11244919
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E-mail: [email protected]
www.udekom.org.rs
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Registration number.: 28157347