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Balkans Journal of Emerging Trends in Social Sciences - Balkans JETSS

INFLATION AND INCOMES POLICY   UNDER A CURRENCY BOARD: THE BULGARIAN CASE

Ivan Todorov -  South-West University "Neofit Rilski", 66 Ivan Mihaylov Street, 2700 Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria
Nikolay Patonov -   South-West University "Neofit Rilski", 66 Ivan Mihaylov Street, 2700 Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria

DOI:  ​  ​ https://doi.org/10.31410/Balkans.JETSS.2023.6.2.75-89

Balkans Journal of Emerging Trends in Social Sciences, (2023) , Vol 6, No 2
ISSN: 2620-164X
balkans.jetss.2023.6.2.75-89.pdf
File Size: 1085 kb
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Abstract:  This study examines the relationship between nominal salary and inflation in Bulgaria under a currency board. A theoretical background of the connection between incomes policy and inflation is provided. Autoregression with distributed lag (ARDL) is employed to analyze the relationship between the percentage change of average nominal salary, the rate of inflation, and the percentage change of average real labor productivity. The time-series data include observations from the third quarter of 1997 to the first quarter of 2022. The study results indicate the existence of both short-term and long-term relationships between inflation and the nominal change in average salary. It is also found that the link between the changes in nominal salary and real labor productivity is broken both in the short and the long term.

Keywords:   Bulgaria, Inflation, Incomes policy, Currency board arrangement.

JEL Classification  E31 · E64
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