LEVEL OF SEASONALITY IN MACEDONIAN TOURISM AND STRATEGIES AND POLICIES FOR COPING WITH IT
Biljana Petrevska, PhD, Asociate Professor
Faculty of Tourism and Business Logistics, Goce Delcev University – Stip, Krste Misirkov bb, 2000 Stip, Macedonia
Branko Nikolovski, PhD, Full Professor
Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality – Ohrid, University of St. Clement Ohridski – Bitola, Kej Makedonija 95, 6000 Ohrid, Macedonia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2018.17
Biljana Petrevska, PhD, Asociate Professor
Faculty of Tourism and Business Logistics, Goce Delcev University – Stip, Krste Misirkov bb, 2000 Stip, Macedonia
Branko Nikolovski, PhD, Full Professor
Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality – Ohrid, University of St. Clement Ohridski – Bitola, Kej Makedonija 95, 6000 Ohrid, Macedonia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2018.17
3rd International Thematic Monograph - Thematic Proceedings: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, Belgrade, 2018, Published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, Macedonia; ISBN 978-86-80194-14-1; Editors: Vuk Bevanda, associate professor, Faculty of Business Studies, Megatrend University, Belgrade, Serbia; Snežana Štetić, full time professor, The College of Tourism, Belgrade, Serbia
Abstract: Seasonality is general characteristic of tourism. As tourism contributes to economic growth and development, seasonality is noted as one of the most influencing factors for limiting continuous development. Thus, the article empirically tests the presence of tourism seasonality for the central level by exploring Macedonia, and the local level, by elaborating Ohrid (the most famous summer tourist spot) and Skopje (the capital). The statistical methodology covers computation of standard indicators, such as the Gini index (G), the Seasonality Indicator (SI) and the Coefficient of Variation (CV). The study found no significant seasonal concentration in tourism in Macedonia, a presence of strong and powerful seasonality for Ohrid, and no seasonality for Skopje. As a consequence, the paper recommends design of specific tailor-made products and urges tourism key players to focus on policies and strategies for modifying tourism seasonality.
Keywords: Seasonality, tourism demand, entrepreneurship, tourism policy
REFERENCES
[1] Brida, G. H., Barquet, A., Risso, A. W. (2010) Causality between economic growth
and tourism expansion: empirical evidence from Trentino-Alto Adige, Tourismos: An
International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol. 5 Np. 2, pp. 87-98.
[2] Brida, G. H., Osti, L., Santifaller, E. (2011) Second homes and the needs for policy planning,
Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol.6 No. 1, pp. 141-
163.
[3] Cheang, V. (2009) State and tourism planning: a case study of Cambodia, Tourismos: An
International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol.4 No. 1, pp. 63-82.
[4] Claveria, O., Datzira, J. (2009) Tourism demand in Catalonia: detecting external economic
factors, Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol. 4 No. 1,
pp. 13-28.
[5] Goeldner, C., Ritchie, B., McIntosh, R. (2000) Tourism: Principles, Practices, Philosophies,
John Wiley & Sons.
[6] BarOn, R. R. V. (1973) Seasonality in tourism – part II, International Tourism Quarterly,
Vol. 1, pp. 51-67.
[7] Fernández-Moralez, A. (2003) Decomposing seasonal concentration, Annals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 30 No, 4, pp. 942-956.
[8] Ashworth, J., Thomas, B. (1999) Patterns of Seasonality in Employment in Tourism in the
UK, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 6, pp. 735-739.
[9] González, P., P. Mora, P. (1996) Analysis of Tourism Trends in Spain, Annals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 23, pp. 739-754.
[10] Sorensen, N. (1999) Modelling the Seasonality of the Hotel Nights in Denmark by Country
and Nationality, Tourism Economics, Vol. 5, pp. 9-23.
[11] Petrevska, B. (2013) Investigating tourism seasonality in Macedonia, UTMS Journal of
Economics, Vol. 4 No. 1, 37-44.
[12] Petrevska, B. (2013) A simple test for the presence of seasonality in tourism in Macedonia,
Conference Proceedings from the 1st International Conference “Regional Economic
Cooperation in the process of Globalization”, 6-7 Dec 2013, Tetovo, Macedonia.
[13] Petrevska, B. (2013) Empirical analysis of seasonality patterns in tourism, Journal of
Process Management – New Technologies International, Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 87-95.
[14] BarOn, R. R. V. (1993) Seasonality. In: Khan, M. A., Olsen M. D., and Var, T.(eds), VNR’s
Encyclopedia of Hospitality and Tourism. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
[15] BarOn, R. R. V. (1999) The measurement of seasonality and its economic impacts, Tourism
Economics, Vol. 5 No. 4, pp. 437-458.
[16] Baum, T. (1999) Seasonality in tourism: understanding the challenges, Tourism Economics,
Vol. 5 Np. 1, pp. 5-8.
[17] Baum, T., Lundtorp, S. (2001) Seasonality in Tourism. Amsterdam.
[18] Butler, R. (1994) Seasonality in tourism: issues and problems. In Seaton, A. V.(ed.),
Tourism: The state of the Art. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, pp. 332-339.
[19] Chung, J. Y. (2009) Seasonality in tourism: a review, e-Review of tourism research, Vol.
7 No. 5, pp. 82-96.
[20] Higham, J., Hinch, T. (2002) Tourism, sport and seasons: the challenges and potential of
overcoming seasonality in the sport and tourism sectors, Tourism Management, Vol. 23,
pp. 175-185.
[21] Jang, S. (2004) Mitigating tourism seasonality: a quantitative approach, Annals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 31 No. 4, pp. 819-836.
28
[22] Koenig, N., Bischoff, E. E. (2004) Analyzing seasonality in Welsh room occupancy data,
Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 31 No. 2, pp. 374-392.
[23] Lundtorp, S. (2001) Measuring Tourism Seasonality. In: Baum, T. and Lundtorp, S.(eds),
Seasonality in Tourism. London; Amsterdam: Pergamon.
[24] Rodrigues, P. M. M., Gouveia, P. M. D. (2004) An application of PAR models for tourism
forecasting, Tourism Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 281-303.
[25] Yacoumis, J. (1980) Tackling seasonality: the case of Sri Lanka, Tourism Management,
Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 84-98.
[26] Holloway, C. J. (1994) The hospitality sector: accommodation and catering services.
London: Pitman Publishing.
[27] Lundberg, D. E., Krishamoorthy, M., Stavenga, M. H. (1995) Tourism economics. John
Wiley and Sons Inc.
[28] Allcock, J. B. (1989) Seasonality. In: Witt, S. F. and Moutinho, L. (eds). Tourism Marketing
and Management Handbook. London: Prentice Hall, pp. 387-392.
[29] Edgell, D. L. (1990) International tourism policy. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
[30] Laws, E. (1991) Tourism marketing: service and quality management perspectives. Stanley
Thornes Publishers.
[31] Snepenger, D., Houser, B., Snepenger, M. (1990) Seasonality of demand, Annals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 17, pp. 628–630.
[32] Szivas, E., Riley, M., Airey, D. (2003) Labor mobility into tourism: attraction and
satisfaction, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 30 No. 1, pp. 64-76.
[33] Nadal, J. R., Font, A. R., Rossello, A. S. (2004) The economic determinants of seasonal
patterns, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 31 No. 3, pp. 697-711.
[34] Sutcliffe, C. M. S., Sinclair, T. M. (1980) The measurement of seasonality within the tourist
industry: an application of tourist arrivals in Spain, Applied Economics, Vol. 12 No. 4,
pp. 429-441.
[35] Witt, S., Brooke, M. Z., Buckley, P. J. (1991) The management of international tourism,
Unwin Hyman, London.
[36] Drakatos, G. C. (1987) Seasonal concentration of tourism in Greece, Annuals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 14, pp. 582-586.
[37] Grant, M., Human, B., LePelley, B. (1997) Seasonality, Insights, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. A5-A9.
[38] Hartmann, R. (1986) Tourism, seasonality and social change, Leisure Studies, Vol. 5 No.
1, pp. 25-33.
[39] State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia. (various years). Various publications
(Statistical Yearbooks), Skopje, Macedonia.
[40] Arnold, R. A. (2008) Economics, Cengage Learning, Mason.
[41] Bigovic, M. (2012) The strength and dynamics of the seasonal concentration in Montenegrin
tourism, Turizam, Vol. 6 No. 3, pp. 102-112.
[42] Black, J. (2002) A dictionary of economics, Oxford University Press, New York.
[43] Fernández-Moralez, A., Mayorga-Toledano, M. C. (2008) Seasonal concentration of hotel
demand in Costa del Sol: a decomposition by nationalities, Tourism Management, Vol. 29
No. 5, pp. 940-949.
[44] Grabler, K. (1997) Cities and the Destination Life Cycle. In: International City Tourism, K.
Grabler, G. Maier, J. Mazanec and K. Wöber (Eds), pp. 54-71. London: Pinter.
[45] Lee, C. (1996) Input-output Analysis and Income Distribution Patterns in the Tourism
Industry in South Korea, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, Vol. 1, pp. 35-49.
[46] Lee, C., Kang, S. (1998) Measuring Earnings Inequality and Median Earnings in the
Tourism Industry, Tourism Management, Vol. 19, pp. 341-348.
[47] Lim, C., McAleer, M. (2008) Analyzing seasonal changes in New Zealand’s largest
inbound market, Tourism Recreation Research, Vol. 33 No. 1, 83-91.
[48] Wöber, K. (1997) International City Tourism Flows, In International City Tourism, K.
Grabler, G. Maier, J. Mazanec and K. Wöber, (Eds.), pp. 39-53. London: Pinter.
[49] Xu, K. (2003) How has the Literature on Gini’s Index Evolved in the Past 80 Years?
Halifax: Dalhousie University.
[50] Wanhill, S. R. C. (1980) Tackling seasonality: a technical note, International Journal of
Tourism Management, Vol. 1 No. 4, pp. 243-245.
[51] Donatos, G., Zairis, P. (1991) Seasonality of foreign tourism in the Greek Island of Crete,
Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 515-519.
[52] Roşca, E. (2009) The synthetical indicators of variability an approach in tourism, Annals
of the „Ştefan cel Mare” University Suceava, Fascicle of The Faculty of Economics and
Public Administration, Vol. 9, No. 1(9), 279-289.
[53] Benur, A. M., Bramwell, B. (2015) Tourism product development and product diversification
in destinations, Tourism Management, Vol. 50, pp. 213-224.
[54] Candrea, A. N., Ispas, A. (2009) Visitor management, a tool for sustainable tourism
development in protected areas, Bulletin of the Transylvania University of Brasov, Series
V: Economic Sciences, Vol. 2 No. 51, pp. 131-136
[55] Jurdana, D. S., Zmijanović, L. (2014) The effect of tourism seasonality on protected areas,
Tourism and Hospitality Industry 2014, Congress proceedings, Trends in Tourism and
Hospitality Industry, pp. 131-146
[56] Forsyth, P., Dwyer, L. (2009) Tourism Price Competitiveness, The Travel & Tourism
Competitiveness Report.
[57] Bala Banki, M., Ismail, H. N., Muhammad, I. B. (2016) Coping with seasonality: A case
study of family owned micro tourism businesses in Obudu Mountain Resort in Nigeria,
Tourism Management Perspectives, Vol. 18, pp. 141-152.
Keywords: Seasonality, tourism demand, entrepreneurship, tourism policy
REFERENCES
[1] Brida, G. H., Barquet, A., Risso, A. W. (2010) Causality between economic growth
and tourism expansion: empirical evidence from Trentino-Alto Adige, Tourismos: An
International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol. 5 Np. 2, pp. 87-98.
[2] Brida, G. H., Osti, L., Santifaller, E. (2011) Second homes and the needs for policy planning,
Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol.6 No. 1, pp. 141-
163.
[3] Cheang, V. (2009) State and tourism planning: a case study of Cambodia, Tourismos: An
International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol.4 No. 1, pp. 63-82.
[4] Claveria, O., Datzira, J. (2009) Tourism demand in Catalonia: detecting external economic
factors, Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, Vol. 4 No. 1,
pp. 13-28.
[5] Goeldner, C., Ritchie, B., McIntosh, R. (2000) Tourism: Principles, Practices, Philosophies,
John Wiley & Sons.
[6] BarOn, R. R. V. (1973) Seasonality in tourism – part II, International Tourism Quarterly,
Vol. 1, pp. 51-67.
[7] Fernández-Moralez, A. (2003) Decomposing seasonal concentration, Annals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 30 No, 4, pp. 942-956.
[8] Ashworth, J., Thomas, B. (1999) Patterns of Seasonality in Employment in Tourism in the
UK, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 6, pp. 735-739.
[9] González, P., P. Mora, P. (1996) Analysis of Tourism Trends in Spain, Annals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 23, pp. 739-754.
[10] Sorensen, N. (1999) Modelling the Seasonality of the Hotel Nights in Denmark by Country
and Nationality, Tourism Economics, Vol. 5, pp. 9-23.
[11] Petrevska, B. (2013) Investigating tourism seasonality in Macedonia, UTMS Journal of
Economics, Vol. 4 No. 1, 37-44.
[12] Petrevska, B. (2013) A simple test for the presence of seasonality in tourism in Macedonia,
Conference Proceedings from the 1st International Conference “Regional Economic
Cooperation in the process of Globalization”, 6-7 Dec 2013, Tetovo, Macedonia.
[13] Petrevska, B. (2013) Empirical analysis of seasonality patterns in tourism, Journal of
Process Management – New Technologies International, Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 87-95.
[14] BarOn, R. R. V. (1993) Seasonality. In: Khan, M. A., Olsen M. D., and Var, T.(eds), VNR’s
Encyclopedia of Hospitality and Tourism. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
[15] BarOn, R. R. V. (1999) The measurement of seasonality and its economic impacts, Tourism
Economics, Vol. 5 No. 4, pp. 437-458.
[16] Baum, T. (1999) Seasonality in tourism: understanding the challenges, Tourism Economics,
Vol. 5 Np. 1, pp. 5-8.
[17] Baum, T., Lundtorp, S. (2001) Seasonality in Tourism. Amsterdam.
[18] Butler, R. (1994) Seasonality in tourism: issues and problems. In Seaton, A. V.(ed.),
Tourism: The state of the Art. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, pp. 332-339.
[19] Chung, J. Y. (2009) Seasonality in tourism: a review, e-Review of tourism research, Vol.
7 No. 5, pp. 82-96.
[20] Higham, J., Hinch, T. (2002) Tourism, sport and seasons: the challenges and potential of
overcoming seasonality in the sport and tourism sectors, Tourism Management, Vol. 23,
pp. 175-185.
[21] Jang, S. (2004) Mitigating tourism seasonality: a quantitative approach, Annals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 31 No. 4, pp. 819-836.
28
[22] Koenig, N., Bischoff, E. E. (2004) Analyzing seasonality in Welsh room occupancy data,
Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 31 No. 2, pp. 374-392.
[23] Lundtorp, S. (2001) Measuring Tourism Seasonality. In: Baum, T. and Lundtorp, S.(eds),
Seasonality in Tourism. London; Amsterdam: Pergamon.
[24] Rodrigues, P. M. M., Gouveia, P. M. D. (2004) An application of PAR models for tourism
forecasting, Tourism Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 281-303.
[25] Yacoumis, J. (1980) Tackling seasonality: the case of Sri Lanka, Tourism Management,
Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 84-98.
[26] Holloway, C. J. (1994) The hospitality sector: accommodation and catering services.
London: Pitman Publishing.
[27] Lundberg, D. E., Krishamoorthy, M., Stavenga, M. H. (1995) Tourism economics. John
Wiley and Sons Inc.
[28] Allcock, J. B. (1989) Seasonality. In: Witt, S. F. and Moutinho, L. (eds). Tourism Marketing
and Management Handbook. London: Prentice Hall, pp. 387-392.
[29] Edgell, D. L. (1990) International tourism policy. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
[30] Laws, E. (1991) Tourism marketing: service and quality management perspectives. Stanley
Thornes Publishers.
[31] Snepenger, D., Houser, B., Snepenger, M. (1990) Seasonality of demand, Annals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 17, pp. 628–630.
[32] Szivas, E., Riley, M., Airey, D. (2003) Labor mobility into tourism: attraction and
satisfaction, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 30 No. 1, pp. 64-76.
[33] Nadal, J. R., Font, A. R., Rossello, A. S. (2004) The economic determinants of seasonal
patterns, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 31 No. 3, pp. 697-711.
[34] Sutcliffe, C. M. S., Sinclair, T. M. (1980) The measurement of seasonality within the tourist
industry: an application of tourist arrivals in Spain, Applied Economics, Vol. 12 No. 4,
pp. 429-441.
[35] Witt, S., Brooke, M. Z., Buckley, P. J. (1991) The management of international tourism,
Unwin Hyman, London.
[36] Drakatos, G. C. (1987) Seasonal concentration of tourism in Greece, Annuals of Tourism
Research, Vol. 14, pp. 582-586.
[37] Grant, M., Human, B., LePelley, B. (1997) Seasonality, Insights, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. A5-A9.
[38] Hartmann, R. (1986) Tourism, seasonality and social change, Leisure Studies, Vol. 5 No.
1, pp. 25-33.
[39] State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia. (various years). Various publications
(Statistical Yearbooks), Skopje, Macedonia.
[40] Arnold, R. A. (2008) Economics, Cengage Learning, Mason.
[41] Bigovic, M. (2012) The strength and dynamics of the seasonal concentration in Montenegrin
tourism, Turizam, Vol. 6 No. 3, pp. 102-112.
[42] Black, J. (2002) A dictionary of economics, Oxford University Press, New York.
[43] Fernández-Moralez, A., Mayorga-Toledano, M. C. (2008) Seasonal concentration of hotel
demand in Costa del Sol: a decomposition by nationalities, Tourism Management, Vol. 29
No. 5, pp. 940-949.
[44] Grabler, K. (1997) Cities and the Destination Life Cycle. In: International City Tourism, K.
Grabler, G. Maier, J. Mazanec and K. Wöber (Eds), pp. 54-71. London: Pinter.
[45] Lee, C. (1996) Input-output Analysis and Income Distribution Patterns in the Tourism
Industry in South Korea, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, Vol. 1, pp. 35-49.
[46] Lee, C., Kang, S. (1998) Measuring Earnings Inequality and Median Earnings in the
Tourism Industry, Tourism Management, Vol. 19, pp. 341-348.
[47] Lim, C., McAleer, M. (2008) Analyzing seasonal changes in New Zealand’s largest
inbound market, Tourism Recreation Research, Vol. 33 No. 1, 83-91.
[48] Wöber, K. (1997) International City Tourism Flows, In International City Tourism, K.
Grabler, G. Maier, J. Mazanec and K. Wöber, (Eds.), pp. 39-53. London: Pinter.
[49] Xu, K. (2003) How has the Literature on Gini’s Index Evolved in the Past 80 Years?
Halifax: Dalhousie University.
[50] Wanhill, S. R. C. (1980) Tackling seasonality: a technical note, International Journal of
Tourism Management, Vol. 1 No. 4, pp. 243-245.
[51] Donatos, G., Zairis, P. (1991) Seasonality of foreign tourism in the Greek Island of Crete,
Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 515-519.
[52] Roşca, E. (2009) The synthetical indicators of variability an approach in tourism, Annals
of the „Ştefan cel Mare” University Suceava, Fascicle of The Faculty of Economics and
Public Administration, Vol. 9, No. 1(9), 279-289.
[53] Benur, A. M., Bramwell, B. (2015) Tourism product development and product diversification
in destinations, Tourism Management, Vol. 50, pp. 213-224.
[54] Candrea, A. N., Ispas, A. (2009) Visitor management, a tool for sustainable tourism
development in protected areas, Bulletin of the Transylvania University of Brasov, Series
V: Economic Sciences, Vol. 2 No. 51, pp. 131-136
[55] Jurdana, D. S., Zmijanović, L. (2014) The effect of tourism seasonality on protected areas,
Tourism and Hospitality Industry 2014, Congress proceedings, Trends in Tourism and
Hospitality Industry, pp. 131-146
[56] Forsyth, P., Dwyer, L. (2009) Tourism Price Competitiveness, The Travel & Tourism
Competitiveness Report.
[57] Bala Banki, M., Ismail, H. N., Muhammad, I. B. (2016) Coping with seasonality: A case
study of family owned micro tourism businesses in Obudu Mountain Resort in Nigeria,
Tourism Management Perspectives, Vol. 18, pp. 141-152.
| petrevska_nikolovski_level_of_seasonality_in_macedonian_tourism__and_strategies_and_policies_for_coping_with_it_pp_17-29.pdf |
Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans
- UdEkoM Balkan -
179 Ustanicka St, 11000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
E-mail: [email protected]
www.udekom.org.rs
- UdEkoM Balkan -
179 Ustanicka St, 11000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
E-mail: [email protected]
www.udekom.org.rs
Tel. +381 62 812 5779
VAT number: 108747027
Registration number.: 28157347
Registration number.: 28157347