THE IMPACT OF TOURISM ON GDP GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES
Miloš Pjanić - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000 Subotica, Serbia
Mirela Mitrašević - Faculty of Business Economics, University of East Sarajevo, Semberskih ratara, 76300 Bijeljina, the Republic
of Srpska
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.53
5th International Thematic Monograph - Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, Belgrade, 2020, Published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia; ISSN 2683-5673, ISBN 978-86-80194-42-4; Editors: Vuk Bevanda, associate professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia; Snežana Štetić, full time professor, The College of Tourism, Belgrade, Serbia, Printed by: SKRIPTA International, Belgrade
Abstract: Tourism represents one of the most important economic activities for the global economy. Over the last several decades, the tourism industry has been achieving substantial growth and development in the global market, as well as a positive direct and indirect impact on other economic activities. The paper aims to examine the connection between five tourism indicators and the growth of gross domestic product on the example of EU countries in the period from 2001 to 2019. The research included a total of six variables; the gross domestic product being the dependent variable, while the selected five tourism indicators were independent variables. The main aim of the paper is to determine which of the researched tourism indicators have a statistically significant impact on GDP growth. The empirical analysis is based on IBM SPSS linear mixed procedures. The main findings are that business tourism spending (BTS) and domestic tourism spending (DTS) can predict in a statistically significant and positive way the growth of the gross domestic product in European Union countries..
Keywords: Tourism, Economy, GDP, European Union.
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Third Edition. South Melbourne: Cengage Learning Australia.
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and Management, 6(8), 206-215.
BAL, H., AKÇA, E., & BAYRAKTAR, M. (2016). The Contribution of Tourism to Economic
Growth: A Research on the Turkey. SPRING, 7(1), 1-20.
Bordens, K., & Abbott, B. (2008). Research Design and Methods: A Process Approach, Eight
Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Brooks, C. (2014). Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Third edition. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
Chen, C., & Chiou-Wei, S. (2009). Tourism expansion, tourism uncertainty and economic
growth: New evidence from Taiwan and Korea. Tourism Management, 30, 812-818.
Chou, M. (2013). Does Tourism Development Promote Economic Growth in Transition Countries?
A Panel Data Analysis. Economic Modelling, 33, 226-232.
Cicchetti, D. (1994). Guidelines, Criteria, and Rules of Thumb for Evaluating Normed and Standardized
Assessment Instruments in Psychology. Psychological Assessment, 6(4), 284-290.
Council, T. W. (2020, October Monday). The World Travel & Tourism Council . Retrieved from
The World Travel & Tourism Council: (https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact/Recovery-
Scenarios-2020-Economic-Impact-from-COVID-19),
Das, P. (2019). Econometrics in Theory and Practice: Analysis of Cross Section, Time Series
and Panel Data with Stata 15.1. Singapore: Springer.
Denis, D. (2018). SPSS Data Analysis for Univariate, Bivariate and Multivariate Statistics. New
York: John Wiley & Sons.
Eurostat. (2020, October Monday). Eurostat. Retrieved from Eurostat: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/
statistics-explained/index.php/Tourism_statistics_-_expenditure
Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C., & Tadasse, B. (2007). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and
Development in Africa. Tourism Economics, 14(4), 1-21.
Fitzmaurice, G., Laird, N., & Ware, J. (2011). Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Second Edition.
New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Focardi, S., & Fabozzi, F. (2004). The Mathematics of Financial Modeling and Investment Management.
John Willey & Sons: New York.
Gujarati, D., & Porter, D. (2009). Basic Econometrics, Fifth Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill/
Irwin.
Gurka, M. (2006). Selecting the Best Linear Mixed Model under REML. The American Statistician,
60(1), 19-26.
Hajdinjak, S. (2014). IMPACT OF TOURISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CROATIA. Enlightening
Tourism. A Pathmaking Journal, 4(1), 30-51.
Haretsebe, M. (2012). Communities’ understanding of tourists and the tourism industry: The Lesotho
Highlands water project. African Journal of Business Management, 6(22), 6667-6674.
Heck, R., Thomas, S., & Tabata, L. (2014). Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling with IBM
SPSS, Second Edition. New York: Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group.
Hedeker, D., & Gibbons, R. (2006). Longitudinal Data Analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Holik, A. (2016). Relationship of Economic Growth with Tourism Sector. Journal of Economics
and Policy, 9(1), 16-33.
Hundt, A. (1996). Impact of Tourism Development on the Economy and Health of Third World
Nations. Journal of Travel Medicine, 3(2), 107-112.
Johnson, W., & Koch, G. (2011). Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, In: Loveric. M. (eds.) International
Encyclopedia of Statistical Science. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Kennedy, P. (2008). A Guide to Econometrics, Sixth Edition. Malden: Blackwell Publishing.
Konishi, S., & Kitagawa, G. (2008). Information Criteria and Statistical Modeling. New York:
Springer Science+Business Media.
Landau, S., & Everitt, B. (2004). A Handbook of Statistical Analyses using SPSS. Boca Raton:
Chapman & Hall/CRC Press.
Leys, C., Delacre, M., Mora, Y., & Lakens, D. (2019). How to Classify, Detect, and Manage
Univariate and Multivariate Outliers, With Emphasis on Pre-Registration, Article 5. International
Review of Social Psychology, 32(1).
Liu, X. (2016). Methods and Applications of Longitudinal Data Analysis. London: Academic
Press - Elsevier.
Lomax , R., & Hahs-Vaughn, D. (2020). An Introduction to Statistical Concepts, Fourth Edition.
New York: Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group.
MADEN, S., BULGAN, G., & YILDIRIM , S. (2019). The Effect of Tourism Sector on Economic
Growth: An Empirical Study on Turkey. Journal of Yasar University, 215-225.
Makochekanwa, A. (2013). An analysis of tourism contribution to economic growth in SADC
Countries. Botswana Journal of Economics, 11(15), 42-56.
Manzoor, F., Wei, L., Asif, M., Zia ul Haq, M., & Rehman, H. (2019). The Contribution of
Sustainable Tourism to Economic Growth and Employment in Pakistan. International
Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16, 1-14.
Martin, W., & Bridgmom, K. (2012). Quantitative and Statistical Research Methods: From
Hypothesis to Results. San Francisco: CA, Jossey-Bass/Wiley.
Massidda, C., & Mattana, P. (2012). A SVECM analysis of the relationship between international
tourism arrivals, GDP and trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1), 93-105.
Meyers, L., Gamst, G., & Guarino, A. (2013). Performing Data Analysis using IBM SPSS. New
York: John Wiley & Sons.
Mickey, R., Dunn, O., & Clark, V. (2004). Applied Statistics: Analysis of Variance and Regression.
New York: John Willey & Sons.
Najim, K., Ikonen, E., & Daoud, A. (2004). Stochastic Processes - Estimation, Optimization
and Analysis. London: Kogan Page Science.
Ongan, S., & Demiröz, D. (2005). The contribution of tourism to the long-run Turkish economic
growth. Journal of Economics, 9(53), 880-894.
Pjanić, M. (2019). Economic effects of tourism on the World economy. 4th International Thematic
Monograph - Thematic Proceedings: Modern Management Tools and Economy of
Tourism Sector in Present Era, 291-305.
Rachev, S., Hochstotter, M., & Fabozzi, F. (2010). Probability and Statistics for Finance. John
Wiley & Sons: New York.
Radukić, S., & Kostić, Z. (2019). What is the impact of price factors on sustainable tourism
competitiveness? 4rd International Thematic Monograph - Thematic Proceedings: Modern
Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, p, 169-182.
Risso, W., & Brida, J. (2009). The contribution of tourism to economic growth: an empirical
analysis for the case of Chile. European Journal of Tourism Research, 2(2), 178-185.
Schafer, J., & Olsen, M. (1998). Multiple Imputation for Multivariate Missing Data Problems: A
Data Analyst’s Perspective. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 33(4), 545-571.
Serban, C. (2017). The Impact of Tourism on the Global Economic System. Economic Sciences
Series, 17(1), 384-387.
Shahzad, S., Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., & Kumar, R. (2017). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in
the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach.
Tourism Management, 60, 223-232.
Shakouri, B., Yazdi, S., Nategian, N., & Shikhrezaei, N. (2017). International Tourism and Economic
Growth and Trade: Variance Decomposition Analysis. Journal of Tourism & Hospitality,
6(3), 1-11.
Shrout, P., & Fleiss, J. (1979). Intraclass Correlations: Uses in Assessing Rater Reliability. Psychological
Bulletin, 86(2), 420-428.
Snijders, T., & Bosker, R. (2003). Multilevel Analysis: An Introduction to Basic and Advanced
Multilevel Modeling. London: SAGE Publications.
Sreejesh, S., Mohapatra, S., & Anusree, M. (2014). Business Research Methods - An Applied
Orientation. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
Tabachnick, B., & Fidell, L. (2014). Using Multivariate Statistics, Sixth Edition. Harlow: Pearson
Education.
The World Bank. (2020, October Monday). The World Bank. Retrieved from The World Bank:
https://databank.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/1ff4a498/Popular-Indicators
https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact/Data-Gateway
Vanhove, N. (2005). The Economics of Tourism Destinations. London: Oxford: Elsevier Butterworth-
Heinemann, United Kingdom.
Vehkalahti , K., & Everitt, B. (2019). Multivariate Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, Second
Edition. Boca Raton: CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group.
Vehkalahti, K., & Everitt, B. (2019). Multivariate Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, Second
Edition. Boca Raton: CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group.
Vijayaragavan, T. (2014). Impact of tourism in Indian economy. International Journal of Development
Research, 4(12), 2835-2839.
West, B., Welch, K., & Galecki, A. (2015). Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical
Software. Boca Raton: CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group.
World Travel & Tourism Council. (2020, October Monday). World Travel & Tourism Council.
Retrieved from World Travel & Tourism Council: https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-
Impact/Data-Gateway
Keywords: Tourism, Economy, GDP, European Union.
REFERENCES
Aguinis, H., Gottfredson, R., & Joo, H. (2013). Best-Practice Recommendations for Defining,
Identifying, and Handling Outliers. Organizational Research Methods, 16(2), 270-301.
Allen, P., Bennett, K., & Heritage, B. (2014). SPSS Statistics Version 22: A Practical Guide,
Third Edition. South Melbourne: Cengage Learning Australia.
Ardahaey, F. (2011). Economic Impacts of Tourism Industry. International Journal of Business
and Management, 6(8), 206-215.
BAL, H., AKÇA, E., & BAYRAKTAR, M. (2016). The Contribution of Tourism to Economic
Growth: A Research on the Turkey. SPRING, 7(1), 1-20.
Bordens, K., & Abbott, B. (2008). Research Design and Methods: A Process Approach, Eight
Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Brooks, C. (2014). Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Third edition. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
Chen, C., & Chiou-Wei, S. (2009). Tourism expansion, tourism uncertainty and economic
growth: New evidence from Taiwan and Korea. Tourism Management, 30, 812-818.
Chou, M. (2013). Does Tourism Development Promote Economic Growth in Transition Countries?
A Panel Data Analysis. Economic Modelling, 33, 226-232.
Cicchetti, D. (1994). Guidelines, Criteria, and Rules of Thumb for Evaluating Normed and Standardized
Assessment Instruments in Psychology. Psychological Assessment, 6(4), 284-290.
Council, T. W. (2020, October Monday). The World Travel & Tourism Council . Retrieved from
The World Travel & Tourism Council: (https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact/Recovery-
Scenarios-2020-Economic-Impact-from-COVID-19),
Das, P. (2019). Econometrics in Theory and Practice: Analysis of Cross Section, Time Series
and Panel Data with Stata 15.1. Singapore: Springer.
Denis, D. (2018). SPSS Data Analysis for Univariate, Bivariate and Multivariate Statistics. New
York: John Wiley & Sons.
Eurostat. (2020, October Monday). Eurostat. Retrieved from Eurostat: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/
statistics-explained/index.php/Tourism_statistics_-_expenditure
Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C., & Tadasse, B. (2007). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and
Development in Africa. Tourism Economics, 14(4), 1-21.
Fitzmaurice, G., Laird, N., & Ware, J. (2011). Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Second Edition.
New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Focardi, S., & Fabozzi, F. (2004). The Mathematics of Financial Modeling and Investment Management.
John Willey & Sons: New York.
Gujarati, D., & Porter, D. (2009). Basic Econometrics, Fifth Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill/
Irwin.
Gurka, M. (2006). Selecting the Best Linear Mixed Model under REML. The American Statistician,
60(1), 19-26.
Hajdinjak, S. (2014). IMPACT OF TOURISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CROATIA. Enlightening
Tourism. A Pathmaking Journal, 4(1), 30-51.
Haretsebe, M. (2012). Communities’ understanding of tourists and the tourism industry: The Lesotho
Highlands water project. African Journal of Business Management, 6(22), 6667-6674.
Heck, R., Thomas, S., & Tabata, L. (2014). Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling with IBM
SPSS, Second Edition. New York: Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group.
Hedeker, D., & Gibbons, R. (2006). Longitudinal Data Analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Holik, A. (2016). Relationship of Economic Growth with Tourism Sector. Journal of Economics
and Policy, 9(1), 16-33.
Hundt, A. (1996). Impact of Tourism Development on the Economy and Health of Third World
Nations. Journal of Travel Medicine, 3(2), 107-112.
Johnson, W., & Koch, G. (2011). Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, In: Loveric. M. (eds.) International
Encyclopedia of Statistical Science. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Kennedy, P. (2008). A Guide to Econometrics, Sixth Edition. Malden: Blackwell Publishing.
Konishi, S., & Kitagawa, G. (2008). Information Criteria and Statistical Modeling. New York:
Springer Science+Business Media.
Landau, S., & Everitt, B. (2004). A Handbook of Statistical Analyses using SPSS. Boca Raton:
Chapman & Hall/CRC Press.
Leys, C., Delacre, M., Mora, Y., & Lakens, D. (2019). How to Classify, Detect, and Manage
Univariate and Multivariate Outliers, With Emphasis on Pre-Registration, Article 5. International
Review of Social Psychology, 32(1).
Liu, X. (2016). Methods and Applications of Longitudinal Data Analysis. London: Academic
Press - Elsevier.
Lomax , R., & Hahs-Vaughn, D. (2020). An Introduction to Statistical Concepts, Fourth Edition.
New York: Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group.
MADEN, S., BULGAN, G., & YILDIRIM , S. (2019). The Effect of Tourism Sector on Economic
Growth: An Empirical Study on Turkey. Journal of Yasar University, 215-225.
Makochekanwa, A. (2013). An analysis of tourism contribution to economic growth in SADC
Countries. Botswana Journal of Economics, 11(15), 42-56.
Manzoor, F., Wei, L., Asif, M., Zia ul Haq, M., & Rehman, H. (2019). The Contribution of
Sustainable Tourism to Economic Growth and Employment in Pakistan. International
Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16, 1-14.
Martin, W., & Bridgmom, K. (2012). Quantitative and Statistical Research Methods: From
Hypothesis to Results. San Francisco: CA, Jossey-Bass/Wiley.
Massidda, C., & Mattana, P. (2012). A SVECM analysis of the relationship between international
tourism arrivals, GDP and trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1), 93-105.
Meyers, L., Gamst, G., & Guarino, A. (2013). Performing Data Analysis using IBM SPSS. New
York: John Wiley & Sons.
Mickey, R., Dunn, O., & Clark, V. (2004). Applied Statistics: Analysis of Variance and Regression.
New York: John Willey & Sons.
Najim, K., Ikonen, E., & Daoud, A. (2004). Stochastic Processes - Estimation, Optimization
and Analysis. London: Kogan Page Science.
Ongan, S., & Demiröz, D. (2005). The contribution of tourism to the long-run Turkish economic
growth. Journal of Economics, 9(53), 880-894.
Pjanić, M. (2019). Economic effects of tourism on the World economy. 4th International Thematic
Monograph - Thematic Proceedings: Modern Management Tools and Economy of
Tourism Sector in Present Era, 291-305.
Rachev, S., Hochstotter, M., & Fabozzi, F. (2010). Probability and Statistics for Finance. John
Wiley & Sons: New York.
Radukić, S., & Kostić, Z. (2019). What is the impact of price factors on sustainable tourism
competitiveness? 4rd International Thematic Monograph - Thematic Proceedings: Modern
Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, p, 169-182.
Risso, W., & Brida, J. (2009). The contribution of tourism to economic growth: an empirical
analysis for the case of Chile. European Journal of Tourism Research, 2(2), 178-185.
Schafer, J., & Olsen, M. (1998). Multiple Imputation for Multivariate Missing Data Problems: A
Data Analyst’s Perspective. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 33(4), 545-571.
Serban, C. (2017). The Impact of Tourism on the Global Economic System. Economic Sciences
Series, 17(1), 384-387.
Shahzad, S., Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., & Kumar, R. (2017). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in
the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach.
Tourism Management, 60, 223-232.
Shakouri, B., Yazdi, S., Nategian, N., & Shikhrezaei, N. (2017). International Tourism and Economic
Growth and Trade: Variance Decomposition Analysis. Journal of Tourism & Hospitality,
6(3), 1-11.
Shrout, P., & Fleiss, J. (1979). Intraclass Correlations: Uses in Assessing Rater Reliability. Psychological
Bulletin, 86(2), 420-428.
Snijders, T., & Bosker, R. (2003). Multilevel Analysis: An Introduction to Basic and Advanced
Multilevel Modeling. London: SAGE Publications.
Sreejesh, S., Mohapatra, S., & Anusree, M. (2014). Business Research Methods - An Applied
Orientation. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
Tabachnick, B., & Fidell, L. (2014). Using Multivariate Statistics, Sixth Edition. Harlow: Pearson
Education.
The World Bank. (2020, October Monday). The World Bank. Retrieved from The World Bank:
https://databank.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/1ff4a498/Popular-Indicators
https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact/Data-Gateway
Vanhove, N. (2005). The Economics of Tourism Destinations. London: Oxford: Elsevier Butterworth-
Heinemann, United Kingdom.
Vehkalahti , K., & Everitt, B. (2019). Multivariate Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, Second
Edition. Boca Raton: CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group.
Vehkalahti, K., & Everitt, B. (2019). Multivariate Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, Second
Edition. Boca Raton: CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group.
Vijayaragavan, T. (2014). Impact of tourism in Indian economy. International Journal of Development
Research, 4(12), 2835-2839.
West, B., Welch, K., & Galecki, A. (2015). Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical
Software. Boca Raton: CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group.
World Travel & Tourism Council. (2020, October Monday). World Travel & Tourism Council.
Retrieved from World Travel & Tourism Council: https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-
Impact/Data-Gateway
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