Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of International Tourism Development on the Economic Growth of Mediterranean Countries
Mirela Mitrašević - Faculty of Business Economics, University of East Sarajevo, Semberskih ratara, 76300 Bijeljina, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Miloš Pjanić - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000 Subotica, Serbia
Darko Marjanović - Institute of Economic Sciences, Zmaj Jovina 12, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2021-2022.21
Mirela Mitrašević - Faculty of Business Economics, University of East Sarajevo, Semberskih ratara, 76300 Bijeljina, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Miloš Pjanić - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000 Subotica, Serbia
Darko Marjanović - Institute of Economic Sciences, Zmaj Jovina 12, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2021-2022.21
6th International Thematic Monograph - Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, Belgrade, 2021/2022, Published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia; ISSN 2683-5673, ISBN 978-86-80194-49-3; Editors: Vuk Bevanda, associate professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia; Snežana Štetić, full time professor, The College of Tourism, Belgrade, Serbia, Printed by: SKRIPTA International, Belgrade
Abstract: The research presented in this paper aims to examine the short-term and long-term effects of international tourism on the economic growth of 17 Mediterranean countries in the period 2000 to 2019. The impact of tourism is not analysed separately. Actually, the indicators of the countries’ labour potential, annual investments, openness to total foreign trade and inflation are also included in the analysis. A panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) evaluation model along with pooled mean group (PMG) estimator was used which proved to be appropriate, based on the characteristics of the panel data series. Our research has shown that the share of international tourism receipts in total exports of a country does not have a statistically significant positive short-term effect on GDP per capita growth, but that it has a statistically significant positive effect in the first lag and a positive long-term effect. Therefore, the hypothesis stating that international tourism receipts have statistically significant short-term and long-term effects on economic growth can be rejected. Our research has shown that economic growth, as a dependent variable, returns to a long-term equilibrium after changing a selected set of independent variables in just over a year. It is vital to note that the size of long-term coefficients obtained by applying the selected model indicates that economic growth is more sensitive to the changes in the share of international tourism in total exports compared to other selected independent variables.
Keywords: GDP per capita growth; International tourism receipts; Panel autoregressive distributed lag model; Pooled mean group estimator
REFERENCES
Akinwande, M.O., Dikko, H.G. and Samson, A. (2015). Variance Inflation Factor: As a Condition for the Inclusion of Suppressor Variable(s) in Regression Analysis. Open Journal of Statistics, 5, 754-767. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojs.2015.57075
Aslan, A. (2014). Tourism Development and Economic Growth in the Mediterranean Countries: Evidence from panel Granger causality tests. Current Issues in Tourism, Volume 17, Issue 4, 363-372. DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2013.768607
Asteriou, D. & Hall, G. S. (2007) Applied Econometrics, revised edition, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Azeez, R. O, (2019). Is Tourism a Sustainable Haven for Economic Growth in North African Countries? An Evidence from Panel Analysis, MPRA Paper 93449, available at: https:// mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/93449/1/MPRA_paper_93449.pdf (accessed 1.9. 2021).
Belke, M. Bolat, S. & Hatemi-j, A. (2021). The impact of tourism on the economic growth in the Mediterranean countries: evidences from hidden panel cointegration test. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1), 399-419.
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.822194
Dwyer, L., Edwards, D., Mistilis, N., Roman, C. & N. Scott (2009). Destination and enterprise management for a tourism future. Tourism management, 30(1), 63-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.04.002
Eryiğit, C. & Eryiğit, M. (2011). Tourism and economic development in Mediterranean Sea basin countries: A panel data analysis. Vadyba Journal of Management, 19(2), 87-92.
Fosse J. et al. (2021). The future of Mediterranean tourism in a (post) COVID world. eco-med briefing 01/21. eco-union, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4616983
Gao, J., Xu, W. & Zhang, L. (2021). Tourism, economic growth, and tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: evidence from the Mediterranean region. Empirical Economics, 60(3), 1507-1529.
Gökovali, U. & Bahar, О. (2006). Contribution of tourism to economic growth: A panel data approach, An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 17(2), 155-167.
Gričar, S., Bojnec, Š., Karadžić, V., & Backović Vulić, T. (2021). Tourism-led economic growth in Montenegro and Slovenia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. https://doi.org /10.1080/1331677X.2021.1875858
Haller, A.P., Butnaru, G.I., Harsan, G.D.T. & Stefanica, M. (2020). The relationship between tourism and economic growth in the EU-28. Is there a tendency towards convergence? Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34(1), 1121-1145. https://doi.org/10.1080/133 1677X.2021.1875858
Hüseyni, İ., Doru, Ö., Tunç, A. (2017). The effects of tourism revenues on economic growth in the context of neo-classical growth model: in the case of Turkey. Ecoforum Journal, North America, 6(1), 1-2.
Im, K.S, Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J. of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74.
Khan, A., Bibi, S., Lorenzo, A., Lyu, J., & Babar, Z.U. (2020). Tourism and Development in Developing Economies: A Policy Implication Perspective. Sustainability, 12(4), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041618
Manera, C., & Taberner, J.G. (2006). The Recent Evolution and Impact of Tourism in the Mediterranean: The Case of Island Regions, 1990-2002. Natural Resources Management, 1-42.
Marinković, G., & Stevanović, S. (2020). Performance changes of the tourism sector in the crises, In V. Bevanda & S. Štetić (Eds.), 5th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era (pp. 425-439). Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans with Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.425
Mirović, V., Kalaš, B., & Pavlović, N. (2020). An empirical analysis of relationship between tourism and economic growth: Panel evidence from Western Balkan Countries, In V. Bevanda & S. Štetić (Eds.), 5th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era (pp. 39-52). Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans with Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.39.
Naseem, S. (2021). The Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia, Economies, 9(117), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9030117
Parrilla, J. C., Font, A. R. and Nadal, J. R. (2007). Tourism and long-term growth - a Spanish perspective. Annals of Tourism Research, 34(3), 709–726.
Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597–625.
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653–670.
Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621–634.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith., R. P., (1997), Pooled Estimation of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Econ Papers.
Phiri, А. (2016). Tourism and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Frameworks. Managing Global Transitions 14(1), 31–53.
Pjanić, M. (2019). Economic effects of tourism on the World economy. In V. Bevanda & S. Štetić (Eds.), 4th International Thematic Monograph - Thematic Proceedings: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Sector in Present Era (pp. 291-305). Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans with Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2019
Pjanić, М., Mitrašević, М. (2020). The impact of tourism on GDP growth in the European Union countries, In V. Bevanda & S. Štetić (Eds.), 5th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era (pp. 53-66). Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans with Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.53
Ren, T., Can, M., Paramati, SR., Fang, J., Wu, W. (2019). The Impact of Tourism Quality on Economic Development and Environment: Evidence from Mediterranean Countries. Sustainability, 11(8):2296. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082296
Selimi, N., Sadiku, L., & Sadiku, М. (2017). The impact of tourism on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries: An empirical analysis. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 10(2), 19-25. http://dx.doi.org/10.25103/ ijbesar.102.02
Shakouri, B., Yazdi, SK., Nategian, N., Shikhrezaei, N. (2017). International Tourism and Economic Growth and Trade: Variance Decomposition Analysis. Journal of Tourism & Hospitality, 6(3), 1-11. doi: 10.4172/2167-0269.1000286.
Šimundić, B., & Kuliš, Z. (2016). Tourism and economic growth in Mediterranean region: Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Acta economica et Turistica, 1(2), 178-196.
Gössling, S., Scott D., Hall, C. M. (2020). Pandemics, tourism and global change: a rapid assessment of COVID-19, Journal of sustainable tourism, 29(1), 1-20, https://doi.org/10.1080/09 669582.2020.1758708
Tugcu, C.T. (2014). Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207-212.
Unković, S., Zečević, B. (2011). Ekonomika turizma. Beograd, Srbija: Centar za izdavačku delatnost Ekonomskog fakulteta u Beogradu.
Bank W. World Bank’s World Development Indicators database, available at: https://databank. worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2021). UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, available at: https://www.unwto.org/unwto-world-tourism-barometer-data (viewed 1.9. 2021)
World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). (2021). Investing in Travel and Tourism, available at: https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2021/Investing%20in%20Travel%20 and%20Tourism%20100921.pdf?ver=2021-09-16-112521-367 (viewed 1.9. 2021).
Keywords: GDP per capita growth; International tourism receipts; Panel autoregressive distributed lag model; Pooled mean group estimator
REFERENCES
Akinwande, M.O., Dikko, H.G. and Samson, A. (2015). Variance Inflation Factor: As a Condition for the Inclusion of Suppressor Variable(s) in Regression Analysis. Open Journal of Statistics, 5, 754-767. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojs.2015.57075
Aslan, A. (2014). Tourism Development and Economic Growth in the Mediterranean Countries: Evidence from panel Granger causality tests. Current Issues in Tourism, Volume 17, Issue 4, 363-372. DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2013.768607
Asteriou, D. & Hall, G. S. (2007) Applied Econometrics, revised edition, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Azeez, R. O, (2019). Is Tourism a Sustainable Haven for Economic Growth in North African Countries? An Evidence from Panel Analysis, MPRA Paper 93449, available at: https:// mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/93449/1/MPRA_paper_93449.pdf (accessed 1.9. 2021).
Belke, M. Bolat, S. & Hatemi-j, A. (2021). The impact of tourism on the economic growth in the Mediterranean countries: evidences from hidden panel cointegration test. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1), 399-419.
https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.822194
Dwyer, L., Edwards, D., Mistilis, N., Roman, C. & N. Scott (2009). Destination and enterprise management for a tourism future. Tourism management, 30(1), 63-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.04.002
Eryiğit, C. & Eryiğit, M. (2011). Tourism and economic development in Mediterranean Sea basin countries: A panel data analysis. Vadyba Journal of Management, 19(2), 87-92.
Fosse J. et al. (2021). The future of Mediterranean tourism in a (post) COVID world. eco-med briefing 01/21. eco-union, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4616983
Gao, J., Xu, W. & Zhang, L. (2021). Tourism, economic growth, and tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: evidence from the Mediterranean region. Empirical Economics, 60(3), 1507-1529.
Gökovali, U. & Bahar, О. (2006). Contribution of tourism to economic growth: A panel data approach, An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 17(2), 155-167.
Gričar, S., Bojnec, Š., Karadžić, V., & Backović Vulić, T. (2021). Tourism-led economic growth in Montenegro and Slovenia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. https://doi.org /10.1080/1331677X.2021.1875858
Haller, A.P., Butnaru, G.I., Harsan, G.D.T. & Stefanica, M. (2020). The relationship between tourism and economic growth in the EU-28. Is there a tendency towards convergence? Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34(1), 1121-1145. https://doi.org/10.1080/133 1677X.2021.1875858
Hüseyni, İ., Doru, Ö., Tunç, A. (2017). The effects of tourism revenues on economic growth in the context of neo-classical growth model: in the case of Turkey. Ecoforum Journal, North America, 6(1), 1-2.
Im, K.S, Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J. of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74.
Khan, A., Bibi, S., Lorenzo, A., Lyu, J., & Babar, Z.U. (2020). Tourism and Development in Developing Economies: A Policy Implication Perspective. Sustainability, 12(4), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041618
Manera, C., & Taberner, J.G. (2006). The Recent Evolution and Impact of Tourism in the Mediterranean: The Case of Island Regions, 1990-2002. Natural Resources Management, 1-42.
Marinković, G., & Stevanović, S. (2020). Performance changes of the tourism sector in the crises, In V. Bevanda & S. Štetić (Eds.), 5th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era (pp. 425-439). Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans with Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.425
Mirović, V., Kalaš, B., & Pavlović, N. (2020). An empirical analysis of relationship between tourism and economic growth: Panel evidence from Western Balkan Countries, In V. Bevanda & S. Štetić (Eds.), 5th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era (pp. 39-52). Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans with Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.39.
Naseem, S. (2021). The Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia, Economies, 9(117), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9030117
Parrilla, J. C., Font, A. R. and Nadal, J. R. (2007). Tourism and long-term growth - a Spanish perspective. Annals of Tourism Research, 34(3), 709–726.
Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597–625.
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653–670.
Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621–634.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith., R. P., (1997), Pooled Estimation of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Econ Papers.
Phiri, А. (2016). Tourism and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Frameworks. Managing Global Transitions 14(1), 31–53.
Pjanić, M. (2019). Economic effects of tourism on the World economy. In V. Bevanda & S. Štetić (Eds.), 4th International Thematic Monograph - Thematic Proceedings: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Sector in Present Era (pp. 291-305). Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans with Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2019
Pjanić, М., Mitrašević, М. (2020). The impact of tourism on GDP growth in the European Union countries, In V. Bevanda & S. Štetić (Eds.), 5th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era (pp. 53-66). Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans with Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.53
Ren, T., Can, M., Paramati, SR., Fang, J., Wu, W. (2019). The Impact of Tourism Quality on Economic Development and Environment: Evidence from Mediterranean Countries. Sustainability, 11(8):2296. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082296
Selimi, N., Sadiku, L., & Sadiku, М. (2017). The impact of tourism on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries: An empirical analysis. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 10(2), 19-25. http://dx.doi.org/10.25103/ ijbesar.102.02
Shakouri, B., Yazdi, SK., Nategian, N., Shikhrezaei, N. (2017). International Tourism and Economic Growth and Trade: Variance Decomposition Analysis. Journal of Tourism & Hospitality, 6(3), 1-11. doi: 10.4172/2167-0269.1000286.
Šimundić, B., & Kuliš, Z. (2016). Tourism and economic growth in Mediterranean region: Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Acta economica et Turistica, 1(2), 178-196.
Gössling, S., Scott D., Hall, C. M. (2020). Pandemics, tourism and global change: a rapid assessment of COVID-19, Journal of sustainable tourism, 29(1), 1-20, https://doi.org/10.1080/09 669582.2020.1758708
Tugcu, C.T. (2014). Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207-212.
Unković, S., Zečević, B. (2011). Ekonomika turizma. Beograd, Srbija: Centar za izdavačku delatnost Ekonomskog fakulteta u Beogradu.
Bank W. World Bank’s World Development Indicators database, available at: https://databank. worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2021). UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, available at: https://www.unwto.org/unwto-world-tourism-barometer-data (viewed 1.9. 2021)
World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). (2021). Investing in Travel and Tourism, available at: https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2021/Investing%20in%20Travel%20 and%20Tourism%20100921.pdf?ver=2021-09-16-112521-367 (viewed 1.9. 2021).
| tmt.2021-2022.21.pdf |
Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans
- UdEkoM Balkan -
179 Ustanicka St, 11000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
E-mail: [email protected]
www.udekom.org.rs
- UdEkoM Balkan -
179 Ustanicka St, 11000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
E-mail: [email protected]
www.udekom.org.rs
Tel. +381 62 812 5779
VAT number: 108747027
Registration number.: 28157347
Registration number.: 28157347