Impact of Terrorism on Tourism Demand in the EU and the Mediterranean
Jaro Berce - Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana, Kardeljeva pl. 5, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Darko Lacmanović - Montenegro Tourism School, Josipa Broza Tita bb, 81000 Podgorica, Montenegro
Andrej Raspor - CEATM d.o.o. (Central Europe Association of Tourism Management), Dolga Poljana 57, 5271 Vipava, Slovenia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2021-2022.73
Jaro Berce - Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana, Kardeljeva pl. 5, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Darko Lacmanović - Montenegro Tourism School, Josipa Broza Tita bb, 81000 Podgorica, Montenegro
Andrej Raspor - CEATM d.o.o. (Central Europe Association of Tourism Management), Dolga Poljana 57, 5271 Vipava, Slovenia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2021-2022.73
6th International Thematic Monograph - Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, Belgrade, 2021/2022, Published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia; ISSN 2683-5673, ISBN 978-86-80194-49-3; Editors: Vuk Bevanda, associate professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia; Snežana Štetić, full time professor, The College of Tourism, Belgrade, Serbia, Printed by: SKRIPTA International, Belgrade
Abstract: The impact of terrorism on tourism causes the specific context in which tourism trips are realised. The relationship between terrorism and tourism was researched many decades ago. There are many open questions regarding the stated impact.
The main goal of this paper is to find out some important facts considering the impact of terrorism regarding global and regional tourist demand. The article emphasises that security is an important factor for stable tourism growth. Security is certainly one of the most important factors for a tourist when deciding for a destination. However, this is all more important in the countries where the political and economic situation is not stable. There are still doubts what is the reason for a greater negative effect on tourism in the countries that are not considered western. Is it only about perception and media coverage or are non-western countries negating the effects with better responses and PR activities?
Using methodology applied in this research, country statistical offices can estimate when tourism will return to its pre-terrorist period.
Keywords: Tourism; Terrorism; Tourist destination; EU; Mediterranean
REFERENCES
Adeloye, D., & Brown, L. (2017). Terrorism and domestic tourist risk perceptions. Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 16(3), 217–233. https://doi.org/10.1080/14766825.2017.1304 399
Afonso-Rodríguez, J. A. (2016). Evaluating the dynamics and impact of terrorist attacks on tourism and economic growth for Turkey. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 9(1), 56–81. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2016.1231196
Afonso-Rodríguez, J. A., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2017). Is Spain benefiting from the Arab Spring? On the impact of terrorism on a tourist competitor country. Quality and Quantity, 52(3), 1371–1408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-017-0527-2
Ajogbeje, K., Adeniyi, O., & Folarin, O. (2017). The effect of terrorism on tourism development in Nigeria. Tourism Economics, 23(8), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816617692477
Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners (Vol. 30). Springer Science & Business Media.
Baker, D. (2014). The Effects of Terrorism on the Travel and Tourism Industry. International Journal of Religious Tourism and Pilgrimage, 2(1), 58–67. Retrieved from http://arrow.dit. ie/ijrtp%5Cnhttp://arrow.dit.ie/ijrtp/vol2/iss1/9
Bakić, O. (2008). Marketing u turizmu (7. izdanje). Novi Sad: Educons University.
Bassil, C., Saleh, A. S., & Anwar, S. (2017). Terrorism and tourism demand: a case study of Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. Current Issues in Tourism, 0(0), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/136 83500.2017.1397609
Beliaeva, N., Petrochenkov, A., & Bade, K. (2013). Data set analysis of electric power consumption. European Researcher. Series A, (10–2), 2482.
Bianchi, R. (2006). Tourism and the Globalisation of Fear: Analysing the Politics of Risk and (in)Security in Global Travel. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 7(1), 64–74. https://doi. org/10.1057/palgrave.thr.6050028
Bowen, C., Fidgeon, P., & Page, S. J. (2014). Maritime tourism and terrorism: Customer perceptions of the potential terrorist threat to cruise shipping. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(7), 610–639. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2012.743973
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time series analysis: forecasting and control. John Wiley & Sons.
Buigut, S., Braendle, U., & Sajeewani, D. (2017). Terrorism and travel advisory effects on international tourism. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(10), 991–1004. https://doi. org/10.1080/10941665.2017.1359193
Crenshaw, M. (2014). Terrorism Research: The Record. International Interactions, 40(4), 556– 567. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2014.902817
Dolnicar, S. (2007). “Crises” that scare tourists: investigating tourists’ travel-related concerns. In K. (eds. B, Laws, & Chon (Ed.), Crisis management in tourism (pp. 98–109). https://doi. org/10.1079/9781845930479.0098
Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1991). Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain. Terrorism, 14(1), 49–58. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576109108435856
Feridun, M. (2011). Impact of terrorism on tourism in Turkey: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics, 43(24), 3349–3354. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036841003636268
Fletcher, J., & Morakabati, Y. (2008). Tourism activity, terrorism and political instability within the commonwealth: The cases of Fiji and Kenya. International Journal of Tourism Research, 10(November), 537–556. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1002/jtr.699
Goldman, O. S., & Neubauer-Shani, M. (2017). Does International Tourism Affect Transnational Terrorism? Journal of Travel Research, 56(4), 451–467. https://doi. org/10.1177/0047287516649059
Gunasekar, S., Patri, R., & Narayanan, B. (2017). International Tourist Arrival in India: Impact of Mumbai 26/11 Terror Attack. Foreign Trade Review, 53(1), 12–28. https://doi. org/10.1177/0015732516681882
Hyndman, R. J., & Koehler, A. B. (2006). Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679–688.
Karl, M., Winder, G., & Bauer, A. (2017). Terrorism and tourism in Israel: Analysis of the temporal scale. Tourism Economics, 23(6), 1343–1352. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816616686417
Kobašić, A., & Senečić, J. (1989). Marketing u turizmu. Zagreb: Školska knjiga.
Korstanje, M. E., & Clayton, A. (2012). Tourism and terrorism: Conflicts and commonalities. Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes, 4(1), 8–25. https://doi.org/10.1108/17554211211198552
Kotler, P., Bowen, J. T., & Makens, J. C. (2010). Marketing for hospitality and tourism (5th ed.). New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall, International Edition.
Lepp, A., & Gibson, H. (2003). Tourist roles, perceived risk and international tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 30(3), 606–624. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(03)00024-0
Liu, A., & Pratt, S. (2017). Tourism’s vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management, 60, 404–417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.001
Llorca-Vivero, R. (2008). Terrorism and international tourism: New evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(2), 169–188. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690701453917
Midleton, V. T. C. (1986). Marketing in travel and Tourism. London: Heinamann.
Nolan, B. (1994). Data analysis: an introduction. Polity.
Pizam, A. (2002). Editorial Tourism and terrorism. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 21(1), 1–3. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0278-4319(01)00037-8
Pizam, A. (2016). The Orlando nightclub massacre: Why radical Islam hates us? International Journal of Hospitality Management, 57, 152–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2016.08.001
Pizam, A., & Fleischer, A. (2002). Severity versus frequency of acts of terrorism: Which has a larger impact on tourism demand? Journal of Travel Research, 40(3), 337–339. https://doi. org/10.1177/0047287502040003011
Pizam, A., & Smith, G. (2000). Tourism and Terrorism: A Historical Analysis of Major Terrorism Acts and Their Impact on Tourism Destinations. Tourism Economics, 6(62), 123–138. Retrieved from http://stars.library.ucf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1379&context=rosenscholar
Radović, M. (2010). Turistička geografija Crne Gore. Bar, Kotor: Fakultet za turizam, hotelijerstvo i trgovinu, Bar; Fakultet za turizam i hotelijerstvo, Kotor.
Ryan, C. (1993). Crime, violence, terrorism and tourism. An accidental or intrinsic relationship? Tourism Management, 14(3), 173–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5177(93)90018-G
Saha, S., & Yap, G. (2014). The Moderation Effects of Political Instability and Terrorism on Tourism Development: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 53(4), 509–521. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287513496472
Samitas, A., Asteriou, D., Polyzos, S., & Kenourgios, D. (2018). Terrorist incidents and tourism demand: Evidence from Greece. Tourism Management Perspectives, 25(October 2017), 23–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2017.10.005
Seabra, C., Abrantes, J. L., & Kastenholz, E. (2014). The influence of terrorism risk perception on purchase involvement and safety concern of international travellers. Journal of Marketing Management, 30(9–10), 874–903. https://doi.org/10.1080/0267257X.2014.934904
Sönmez, Sevil F., Apostolopoulos, Y., & Tarlow, P. (1999). Tourism in Crisis: Managing the Effects of Terrorism. Journal. Journal of Travel Research, 38(1), 13–18.
Sönmez, S. F., & Graefe, A. R. (1998). Influence of Terrorism Risk on Foreign Tourism Decisions. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(1), 112–144.
Tableau. (2014). Visual Analysis Best Practices. Tableau Software, 41.
Thompson, A. (2011). Terrorism and tourism in developed versus developing countries. Tourism Economics, 17(3), 693–700. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2011.0064
Unković, S., & Zečević, B. (2011). Ekonomika turizma (22. izdanje). Beograd: Centar za izdavačku delatnost Ekonomskog fakulteta u Beogradu.
Unković, Slobodan, Bakić, O., Čačić, K., & Popesku, J. (1991). Savremeni tokovi u turizmu. Beograd: Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet.
Vukonić, B. (1985). Marketing u turizmu. Zagreb: Vjesnik.
Walters, G., Wallin, A., & Hartley, N. (2018). The Threat of Terrorism and Tourist Choice Behavior. Journal of Travel Research, 58(3), 370-382. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287518755503
Wolff, K., & Larsen, S. (2017). A Taxonomy of Terror - About the Effect of Different Kinds of Terror on Risk Perceptions. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 17(2), 111– 128. https://doi.org/10.1080/15022250.2015.1137487
WTTC. (2016). Tourism as a Driver of Peace. World Travel Tourism Council. http://peacetourism.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Tourism-as-a-Driver-of-Peace.pdf
The main goal of this paper is to find out some important facts considering the impact of terrorism regarding global and regional tourist demand. The article emphasises that security is an important factor for stable tourism growth. Security is certainly one of the most important factors for a tourist when deciding for a destination. However, this is all more important in the countries where the political and economic situation is not stable. There are still doubts what is the reason for a greater negative effect on tourism in the countries that are not considered western. Is it only about perception and media coverage or are non-western countries negating the effects with better responses and PR activities?
Using methodology applied in this research, country statistical offices can estimate when tourism will return to its pre-terrorist period.
Keywords: Tourism; Terrorism; Tourist destination; EU; Mediterranean
REFERENCES
Adeloye, D., & Brown, L. (2017). Terrorism and domestic tourist risk perceptions. Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 16(3), 217–233. https://doi.org/10.1080/14766825.2017.1304 399
Afonso-Rodríguez, J. A. (2016). Evaluating the dynamics and impact of terrorist attacks on tourism and economic growth for Turkey. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 9(1), 56–81. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2016.1231196
Afonso-Rodríguez, J. A., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2017). Is Spain benefiting from the Arab Spring? On the impact of terrorism on a tourist competitor country. Quality and Quantity, 52(3), 1371–1408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-017-0527-2
Ajogbeje, K., Adeniyi, O., & Folarin, O. (2017). The effect of terrorism on tourism development in Nigeria. Tourism Economics, 23(8), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816617692477
Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners (Vol. 30). Springer Science & Business Media.
Baker, D. (2014). The Effects of Terrorism on the Travel and Tourism Industry. International Journal of Religious Tourism and Pilgrimage, 2(1), 58–67. Retrieved from http://arrow.dit. ie/ijrtp%5Cnhttp://arrow.dit.ie/ijrtp/vol2/iss1/9
Bakić, O. (2008). Marketing u turizmu (7. izdanje). Novi Sad: Educons University.
Bassil, C., Saleh, A. S., & Anwar, S. (2017). Terrorism and tourism demand: a case study of Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. Current Issues in Tourism, 0(0), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/136 83500.2017.1397609
Beliaeva, N., Petrochenkov, A., & Bade, K. (2013). Data set analysis of electric power consumption. European Researcher. Series A, (10–2), 2482.
Bianchi, R. (2006). Tourism and the Globalisation of Fear: Analysing the Politics of Risk and (in)Security in Global Travel. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 7(1), 64–74. https://doi. org/10.1057/palgrave.thr.6050028
Bowen, C., Fidgeon, P., & Page, S. J. (2014). Maritime tourism and terrorism: Customer perceptions of the potential terrorist threat to cruise shipping. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(7), 610–639. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2012.743973
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time series analysis: forecasting and control. John Wiley & Sons.
Buigut, S., Braendle, U., & Sajeewani, D. (2017). Terrorism and travel advisory effects on international tourism. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(10), 991–1004. https://doi. org/10.1080/10941665.2017.1359193
Crenshaw, M. (2014). Terrorism Research: The Record. International Interactions, 40(4), 556– 567. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2014.902817
Dolnicar, S. (2007). “Crises” that scare tourists: investigating tourists’ travel-related concerns. In K. (eds. B, Laws, & Chon (Ed.), Crisis management in tourism (pp. 98–109). https://doi. org/10.1079/9781845930479.0098
Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1991). Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain. Terrorism, 14(1), 49–58. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576109108435856
Feridun, M. (2011). Impact of terrorism on tourism in Turkey: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics, 43(24), 3349–3354. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036841003636268
Fletcher, J., & Morakabati, Y. (2008). Tourism activity, terrorism and political instability within the commonwealth: The cases of Fiji and Kenya. International Journal of Tourism Research, 10(November), 537–556. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1002/jtr.699
Goldman, O. S., & Neubauer-Shani, M. (2017). Does International Tourism Affect Transnational Terrorism? Journal of Travel Research, 56(4), 451–467. https://doi. org/10.1177/0047287516649059
Gunasekar, S., Patri, R., & Narayanan, B. (2017). International Tourist Arrival in India: Impact of Mumbai 26/11 Terror Attack. Foreign Trade Review, 53(1), 12–28. https://doi. org/10.1177/0015732516681882
Hyndman, R. J., & Koehler, A. B. (2006). Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679–688.
Karl, M., Winder, G., & Bauer, A. (2017). Terrorism and tourism in Israel: Analysis of the temporal scale. Tourism Economics, 23(6), 1343–1352. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816616686417
Kobašić, A., & Senečić, J. (1989). Marketing u turizmu. Zagreb: Školska knjiga.
Korstanje, M. E., & Clayton, A. (2012). Tourism and terrorism: Conflicts and commonalities. Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes, 4(1), 8–25. https://doi.org/10.1108/17554211211198552
Kotler, P., Bowen, J. T., & Makens, J. C. (2010). Marketing for hospitality and tourism (5th ed.). New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall, International Edition.
Lepp, A., & Gibson, H. (2003). Tourist roles, perceived risk and international tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 30(3), 606–624. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(03)00024-0
Liu, A., & Pratt, S. (2017). Tourism’s vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management, 60, 404–417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.001
Llorca-Vivero, R. (2008). Terrorism and international tourism: New evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(2), 169–188. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690701453917
Midleton, V. T. C. (1986). Marketing in travel and Tourism. London: Heinamann.
Nolan, B. (1994). Data analysis: an introduction. Polity.
Pizam, A. (2002). Editorial Tourism and terrorism. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 21(1), 1–3. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0278-4319(01)00037-8
Pizam, A. (2016). The Orlando nightclub massacre: Why radical Islam hates us? International Journal of Hospitality Management, 57, 152–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2016.08.001
Pizam, A., & Fleischer, A. (2002). Severity versus frequency of acts of terrorism: Which has a larger impact on tourism demand? Journal of Travel Research, 40(3), 337–339. https://doi. org/10.1177/0047287502040003011
Pizam, A., & Smith, G. (2000). Tourism and Terrorism: A Historical Analysis of Major Terrorism Acts and Their Impact on Tourism Destinations. Tourism Economics, 6(62), 123–138. Retrieved from http://stars.library.ucf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1379&context=rosenscholar
Radović, M. (2010). Turistička geografija Crne Gore. Bar, Kotor: Fakultet za turizam, hotelijerstvo i trgovinu, Bar; Fakultet za turizam i hotelijerstvo, Kotor.
Ryan, C. (1993). Crime, violence, terrorism and tourism. An accidental or intrinsic relationship? Tourism Management, 14(3), 173–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5177(93)90018-G
Saha, S., & Yap, G. (2014). The Moderation Effects of Political Instability and Terrorism on Tourism Development: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 53(4), 509–521. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287513496472
Samitas, A., Asteriou, D., Polyzos, S., & Kenourgios, D. (2018). Terrorist incidents and tourism demand: Evidence from Greece. Tourism Management Perspectives, 25(October 2017), 23–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2017.10.005
Seabra, C., Abrantes, J. L., & Kastenholz, E. (2014). The influence of terrorism risk perception on purchase involvement and safety concern of international travellers. Journal of Marketing Management, 30(9–10), 874–903. https://doi.org/10.1080/0267257X.2014.934904
Sönmez, Sevil F., Apostolopoulos, Y., & Tarlow, P. (1999). Tourism in Crisis: Managing the Effects of Terrorism. Journal. Journal of Travel Research, 38(1), 13–18.
Sönmez, S. F., & Graefe, A. R. (1998). Influence of Terrorism Risk on Foreign Tourism Decisions. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(1), 112–144.
Tableau. (2014). Visual Analysis Best Practices. Tableau Software, 41.
Thompson, A. (2011). Terrorism and tourism in developed versus developing countries. Tourism Economics, 17(3), 693–700. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2011.0064
Unković, S., & Zečević, B. (2011). Ekonomika turizma (22. izdanje). Beograd: Centar za izdavačku delatnost Ekonomskog fakulteta u Beogradu.
Unković, Slobodan, Bakić, O., Čačić, K., & Popesku, J. (1991). Savremeni tokovi u turizmu. Beograd: Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet.
Vukonić, B. (1985). Marketing u turizmu. Zagreb: Vjesnik.
Walters, G., Wallin, A., & Hartley, N. (2018). The Threat of Terrorism and Tourist Choice Behavior. Journal of Travel Research, 58(3), 370-382. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287518755503
Wolff, K., & Larsen, S. (2017). A Taxonomy of Terror - About the Effect of Different Kinds of Terror on Risk Perceptions. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 17(2), 111– 128. https://doi.org/10.1080/15022250.2015.1137487
WTTC. (2016). Tourism as a Driver of Peace. World Travel Tourism Council. http://peacetourism.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Tourism-as-a-Driver-of-Peace.pdf
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