Testing the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis with Tourism Price Indices for OECD Countries
Jani Bekő - University of Maribor, Faculty of Economics and Business, Slovenia
Darja Boršič - University of Maribor, Faculty of Economics and Business, Slovenia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2022-2023.21
Jani Bekő - University of Maribor, Faculty of Economics and Business, Slovenia
Darja Boršič - University of Maribor, Faculty of Economics and Business, Slovenia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2022-2023.21
7th International Thematic Monograph - Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, Belgrade, 2022/2023, Published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia; ISSN 2683-5673, ISBN 978-86-80194-56-1 ; Editors: Vuk Bevanda, associate professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia; Snežana Štetić, full time professor, The College of Tourism, Belgrade, Serbia, Printed by: SKRIPTA International, Belgrade
Abstract: This chapter investigates the empirical validity of PPP for the group of 26 OECD economies. Four improvements are derived from the re- search. First, the testing strategy relies on two price indicators: the consumer price index for all items and the consumer price index for hotels and restau- rants including catering and accommodation services. Second, the PPP the- ory is scrutinized by employing two base currencies; the US dollar and the euro. Third, the mean reversion hypothesis of OECD countries’ real exchange rates is evaluated by a variety of first-generation panel unit root tests plus by the Pesaran CIPS unit root test integrating potential correlations across residuals of panel units. Fourth, the PPP model is inspected on a new data set covering the period from February 2002 to October 2022. The results re- veal robust evidence of mean reversion of real exchange rates in the panel of OECD countries.
Keywords: Panel unit root tests; Tourism sector; Consumer price indices for hotels and restaurants; Price competitiveness
REFERENCES
Abioglu, V., & Hasanov, M. (2021). Empirical investigation of long run PPP hypothesis: the case of temporary structural break and asymmetric adjustment. International Journal of Eco- nomic Sciences, 10(1), 1-19. https://dx.doi.org/10.52950/ES.2021.10.1.001
Aslan, Ö., & Korap, L. (2009). Are real exchange rates mean reverting? Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Applied Economics Letters, 16(1), 23-27. https://doi. org/10.1080/13504850701735773
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., & Liu, W. C. (2014). Revisiting purchasing power parity in 34 OECD countries: sequential panel selection method. Applied Economics Letters, 21(18), 1283-1287. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2014.923553
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Ranjbar, O. (2016). Quantile unit root test and PPP: evidence from 23 OECD countries. Applied Economics, 48(31), 2899-2911. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684 6.2015.1130794
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Wu, T. P. (2018). PPP in the 34 OECD countries: evidence from quan- tile-based unit root tests with both smooth and sharp breaks. Applied Economics, 50(23), 2622-2634. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1403562
Bekő, J., & Boršič, D. (2018). Testing the purchasing power parity hypothesis: case of ASE- AN economies. Naše Gospodarstvo/Our Economy, 64(4), 74-85. https://doi.org/10.2478/ ngoe-2018-0024
Bekő, J., & Boršič, D. (2020). Are the Mediterranean countries with tourism price indices in the purchasing power parity zone?. In: Bevanda, V., Štetić, S. (eds.), Modern management tools and economy of tourism sector in present era: 5th international thematic mono- graph. Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans; Ohrid: Facul- ty of Tourism and Hospitality. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.107
Breitung, J. (2000). The local power of some unit root tests for panel data, in Advances in econo- metrics, Vol. 15: Nonstationary panels, panel cointegration, and dynamic panels, Balta- gi B.(Ed.), JAI Press, Amsterdam, 161-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15006-6
Cerrato, M., & Sarantis, N. (2008). Symmetry, proportionality and the purchasing power parity: evidence from panel cointegration tests. International Review of Economics and Finance, 17(1), 56-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2006.03.001
Cheung, Y. W., Chinn, M., & Fujii, E. (2001). Market structure and the persistence of sectoral real exchange rates. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(2), 95-114. https:// doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.151
Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal for International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249-272. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00048-6
Chortareas, G., & Kapetanios, G. (2009). Getting PPP right: identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33(2), 390-404. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.08.010
Christopoulos, D. K., & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean re- version: post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Fi- nance, 29(6), 1076-1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.003
Coakley, J., Kellard, N., & Snaith, S. (2005). The PPP debate: price matters! Economic Letters,
88(2), 209-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.01.020
Coe, P. J., & Serletis, A. (2002). Bounds tests of the theory of purchasing power parity. Jour- nal of Banking & Finance, 26(1), 179-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(01)00159-5
Cuestas, J. C., & Regis, P. J. (2013). Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: nonlinear unit root tests revisited. Economic Modelling, 32(May), 343-346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. econmod.2013.01.035
Drissi, R., & Boukhatem, J. (2020). A nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates under trans- action costs hypothesis in developed and emerging countries. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(2), 220-235. https://doi.org/10.3934/QFE.2020010
Eurostat. (2022). Eurostat database. Retrieved December 20, 2022, from https://ec.europa.eu/ eurostat/data/database
Federal Statistical Office. (2022). Consumer prices. CPI, detailed results since 1982, structure of basket 2020, including additional classifications. Retrieved from https://www.bfs.ad- min.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/prices/consumer-price-index.assetdetail.23925502.html
Fisher, R. A. (1932). Statistical methods for research workers, 4th edition. Edinburgh:Oliver&Boyd.
Froot, K. A., & Rogoff, K. (1995). Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates, In Handbook of international economics Vol. III, Grossman, G., Rogoff, K. (Ed), Elsevier Science, pp. 1647–1688. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4404(05)80012-7
Groneck, M., & Kaufmann, C. (2017). Determinants of relative sectoral prices: the role of de- mographic change. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 79(3), 319-347. https://doi. org/10.1111/obes.12149
Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2012). PPP in OECD countries: an analysis of real exchange rate stationarity, cross-sectional dependency and structural breaks. Open Econ- omies Review, 23(5), 767-783. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-011-9234-0
Hungarian Central Statistical Office. (2022). Dissemination database. Consumer prices. Avail- able at: https://statinfo.ksh.hu/Statinfo/themeSelector.jsp?&lang=en. [27 December 2022]. Hurlin, C. (2010). What would Nelson and Plosser find had they used panel unit root tests? Applied Economics, 42(12), 1515-1531. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701721539
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels.
Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 Instituto Nacional de Estadística. (2022). Consumer price index. Latest data. Retrieved December 27, 2022, from https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=50902
International Monetary Fund. (2022). International financial statistics. Retrieved Decem- ber 20, 2022, from https://data.imf.org/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b-&sId=1390030341854
Jiang, C., Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Chang, T. (2015). Revisiting purchasing power parity in OECD. Applied Economics, 47(40), 4323-4334. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1026592
Kalyoncu, H., & Kalyoncu, K. (2008). Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: evi- dence from panel unit root. Economic Modelling, 25(3), 440-445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. econmod.2007.07.003
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. (2002). Unit root testing in panel data: asymptotic and fi- nite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0304-4076(01)00098-7
Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(1), 631-653. https://doi. org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631
Narayan, P. K. (2005). New evidence on purchasing power parity from 17 OECD countries. Ap- plied Economics, 37(9), 1063-1071. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500081713
Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Prasad, A. (2009). Evidence on PPP from a cointegration test with multiple structural breaks. Applied Economics Letters, 16(1), 5-8. https://doi. org/10.1080/13504850701222160
NBER. (2012). US business cycle expansions and contractions. Retrieved March 5, 2018, from http://www.nber.org/cycles/US_Business_Cycle_Expansions_and_Contractions_20120423. pdf.
OECD. (2022a). OECD Tourism trends and policies 2022. Retrieved January 24, 2023, from https://www.oecd.org/cfe/tourism/
OECD. (2022b). OECD statistics. Consumer price indices (CPIs) - complete database. Retrieved December 9, 2022, from https://stats.oecd.org/
Omay, T., Shabhaz, M., & Hasanov, M. (2020). Testing PPP hypothesis under temporary structural breaks and asymmetric dynamic adjustments. Applied Economics, 52(32), 3479-3497. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1713293
Parikh, A., & Wakerly, E. (2000). Real exchange rates and unit root tests. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 136(3), 478-490. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707290
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
Rabe, C., & Waddle, A. (2020). The evolution of purchasing power parity. Journal of International Money and Finance, 109(December), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102237
Ramajo, J., & Ferré, M. (2010). Purchasing power parity revisited: evidence from old and new tests for an organisation for economic co-operation and development panel. Applied Eco- nomics, 42(17), 2243-2260. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701765486
Serletis, A., & Gogas, P. (2004). Long-horizon regression tests of the theory of purchasing power parity. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(8), 1961-1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jbankfin.2003.07.006
Statistics Finland. (2022). Statistics Finland’s free of charge statistical databases. Retrieved December 27, 2022, from https://pxdata.stat.fi/PxWeb/pxweb/en/StatFin/
Taylor, A. M., & Taylor, M. P. (2004). The purchasing power parity debate. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4), 135-158. https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330042632744
Taylor, M. P. (2006). Real exchange rates and purchasing power parity: mean-reversion in economic thought. Applied Financial Economics, 16(1-2), 1-17. https://doi. org/10.1080/09603100500390067
Tubadji, A., & Nijkamp, P. (2018). Revisiting the Balassa-Samuelson effect: international tourism and cultural proximity. Tourism Economics, 24(8), 915-944. https://doi. org/10.1177/1354816618781468
U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics. (2022). Consumer price index (CPI) databases. Retrieved December 27, 2022, from https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm
U. S. Department of State. (2023). The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Retrieved January 24, 2023, from https://www.state.gov/the-organization- for-economic-co-operation-and-development-oecd/
Vo, L. H., & Vo, D. H. (2020). Long-run dynamics of exchange rates: a multi-frequency inves- tigation. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54(November), 1-17. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101125
Xie, Z. X., Chen, S. W., & Hsieh, C. K. (2021). Facing up to the polysemy of the purchasing power parity: new international evidence. Economic Modelling, 98(May), 247-265. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.02.019
Keywords: Panel unit root tests; Tourism sector; Consumer price indices for hotels and restaurants; Price competitiveness
REFERENCES
Abioglu, V., & Hasanov, M. (2021). Empirical investigation of long run PPP hypothesis: the case of temporary structural break and asymmetric adjustment. International Journal of Eco- nomic Sciences, 10(1), 1-19. https://dx.doi.org/10.52950/ES.2021.10.1.001
Aslan, Ö., & Korap, L. (2009). Are real exchange rates mean reverting? Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Applied Economics Letters, 16(1), 23-27. https://doi. org/10.1080/13504850701735773
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., & Liu, W. C. (2014). Revisiting purchasing power parity in 34 OECD countries: sequential panel selection method. Applied Economics Letters, 21(18), 1283-1287. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2014.923553
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Ranjbar, O. (2016). Quantile unit root test and PPP: evidence from 23 OECD countries. Applied Economics, 48(31), 2899-2911. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684 6.2015.1130794
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Wu, T. P. (2018). PPP in the 34 OECD countries: evidence from quan- tile-based unit root tests with both smooth and sharp breaks. Applied Economics, 50(23), 2622-2634. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1403562
Bekő, J., & Boršič, D. (2018). Testing the purchasing power parity hypothesis: case of ASE- AN economies. Naše Gospodarstvo/Our Economy, 64(4), 74-85. https://doi.org/10.2478/ ngoe-2018-0024
Bekő, J., & Boršič, D. (2020). Are the Mediterranean countries with tourism price indices in the purchasing power parity zone?. In: Bevanda, V., Štetić, S. (eds.), Modern management tools and economy of tourism sector in present era: 5th international thematic mono- graph. Belgrade: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans; Ohrid: Facul- ty of Tourism and Hospitality. https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2020.107
Breitung, J. (2000). The local power of some unit root tests for panel data, in Advances in econo- metrics, Vol. 15: Nonstationary panels, panel cointegration, and dynamic panels, Balta- gi B.(Ed.), JAI Press, Amsterdam, 161-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15006-6
Cerrato, M., & Sarantis, N. (2008). Symmetry, proportionality and the purchasing power parity: evidence from panel cointegration tests. International Review of Economics and Finance, 17(1), 56-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2006.03.001
Cheung, Y. W., Chinn, M., & Fujii, E. (2001). Market structure and the persistence of sectoral real exchange rates. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(2), 95-114. https:// doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.151
Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal for International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249-272. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00048-6
Chortareas, G., & Kapetanios, G. (2009). Getting PPP right: identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33(2), 390-404. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.08.010
Christopoulos, D. K., & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean re- version: post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Fi- nance, 29(6), 1076-1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.003
Coakley, J., Kellard, N., & Snaith, S. (2005). The PPP debate: price matters! Economic Letters,
88(2), 209-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.01.020
Coe, P. J., & Serletis, A. (2002). Bounds tests of the theory of purchasing power parity. Jour- nal of Banking & Finance, 26(1), 179-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(01)00159-5
Cuestas, J. C., & Regis, P. J. (2013). Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: nonlinear unit root tests revisited. Economic Modelling, 32(May), 343-346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. econmod.2013.01.035
Drissi, R., & Boukhatem, J. (2020). A nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates under trans- action costs hypothesis in developed and emerging countries. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(2), 220-235. https://doi.org/10.3934/QFE.2020010
Eurostat. (2022). Eurostat database. Retrieved December 20, 2022, from https://ec.europa.eu/ eurostat/data/database
Federal Statistical Office. (2022). Consumer prices. CPI, detailed results since 1982, structure of basket 2020, including additional classifications. Retrieved from https://www.bfs.ad- min.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/prices/consumer-price-index.assetdetail.23925502.html
Fisher, R. A. (1932). Statistical methods for research workers, 4th edition. Edinburgh:Oliver&Boyd.
Froot, K. A., & Rogoff, K. (1995). Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates, In Handbook of international economics Vol. III, Grossman, G., Rogoff, K. (Ed), Elsevier Science, pp. 1647–1688. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4404(05)80012-7
Groneck, M., & Kaufmann, C. (2017). Determinants of relative sectoral prices: the role of de- mographic change. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 79(3), 319-347. https://doi. org/10.1111/obes.12149
Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2012). PPP in OECD countries: an analysis of real exchange rate stationarity, cross-sectional dependency and structural breaks. Open Econ- omies Review, 23(5), 767-783. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-011-9234-0
Hungarian Central Statistical Office. (2022). Dissemination database. Consumer prices. Avail- able at: https://statinfo.ksh.hu/Statinfo/themeSelector.jsp?&lang=en. [27 December 2022]. Hurlin, C. (2010). What would Nelson and Plosser find had they used panel unit root tests? Applied Economics, 42(12), 1515-1531. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701721539
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels.
Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 Instituto Nacional de Estadística. (2022). Consumer price index. Latest data. Retrieved December 27, 2022, from https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=50902
International Monetary Fund. (2022). International financial statistics. Retrieved Decem- ber 20, 2022, from https://data.imf.org/?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b-&sId=1390030341854
Jiang, C., Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Chang, T. (2015). Revisiting purchasing power parity in OECD. Applied Economics, 47(40), 4323-4334. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1026592
Kalyoncu, H., & Kalyoncu, K. (2008). Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: evi- dence from panel unit root. Economic Modelling, 25(3), 440-445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. econmod.2007.07.003
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. (2002). Unit root testing in panel data: asymptotic and fi- nite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0304-4076(01)00098-7
Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(1), 631-653. https://doi. org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631
Narayan, P. K. (2005). New evidence on purchasing power parity from 17 OECD countries. Ap- plied Economics, 37(9), 1063-1071. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500081713
Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Prasad, A. (2009). Evidence on PPP from a cointegration test with multiple structural breaks. Applied Economics Letters, 16(1), 5-8. https://doi. org/10.1080/13504850701222160
NBER. (2012). US business cycle expansions and contractions. Retrieved March 5, 2018, from http://www.nber.org/cycles/US_Business_Cycle_Expansions_and_Contractions_20120423. pdf.
OECD. (2022a). OECD Tourism trends and policies 2022. Retrieved January 24, 2023, from https://www.oecd.org/cfe/tourism/
OECD. (2022b). OECD statistics. Consumer price indices (CPIs) - complete database. Retrieved December 9, 2022, from https://stats.oecd.org/
Omay, T., Shabhaz, M., & Hasanov, M. (2020). Testing PPP hypothesis under temporary structural breaks and asymmetric dynamic adjustments. Applied Economics, 52(32), 3479-3497. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1713293
Parikh, A., & Wakerly, E. (2000). Real exchange rates and unit root tests. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 136(3), 478-490. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707290
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
Rabe, C., & Waddle, A. (2020). The evolution of purchasing power parity. Journal of International Money and Finance, 109(December), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102237
Ramajo, J., & Ferré, M. (2010). Purchasing power parity revisited: evidence from old and new tests for an organisation for economic co-operation and development panel. Applied Eco- nomics, 42(17), 2243-2260. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701765486
Serletis, A., & Gogas, P. (2004). Long-horizon regression tests of the theory of purchasing power parity. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(8), 1961-1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jbankfin.2003.07.006
Statistics Finland. (2022). Statistics Finland’s free of charge statistical databases. Retrieved December 27, 2022, from https://pxdata.stat.fi/PxWeb/pxweb/en/StatFin/
Taylor, A. M., & Taylor, M. P. (2004). The purchasing power parity debate. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4), 135-158. https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330042632744
Taylor, M. P. (2006). Real exchange rates and purchasing power parity: mean-reversion in economic thought. Applied Financial Economics, 16(1-2), 1-17. https://doi. org/10.1080/09603100500390067
Tubadji, A., & Nijkamp, P. (2018). Revisiting the Balassa-Samuelson effect: international tourism and cultural proximity. Tourism Economics, 24(8), 915-944. https://doi. org/10.1177/1354816618781468
U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics. (2022). Consumer price index (CPI) databases. Retrieved December 27, 2022, from https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm
U. S. Department of State. (2023). The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Retrieved January 24, 2023, from https://www.state.gov/the-organization- for-economic-co-operation-and-development-oecd/
Vo, L. H., & Vo, D. H. (2020). Long-run dynamics of exchange rates: a multi-frequency inves- tigation. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54(November), 1-17. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101125
Xie, Z. X., Chen, S. W., & Hsieh, C. K. (2021). Facing up to the polysemy of the purchasing power parity: new international evidence. Economic Modelling, 98(May), 247-265. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.02.019
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