Tourism Direct GDP in the Nordic Countries
Vesna D. Jablanovic - University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11081 Belgrade, Serbia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2022-2023.51
Vesna D. Jablanovic - University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11081 Belgrade, Serbia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2022-2023.51
7th International Thematic Monograph - Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, Belgrade, 2022/2023, Published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia; ISSN 2683-5673, ISBN 978-86-80194-56-1 ; Editors: Vuk Bevanda, associate professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia; Snežana Štetić, full time professor, The College of Tourism, Belgrade, Serbia, Printed by: SKRIPTA International, Belgrade
Abstract: This paper examines the stability of tourism's total contribution to the gross domestic product. This indicator is measured as a percentage of total GDP. The basic aim of this paper is to create a relatively simple chaotic growth model of tourism's total contribution to the gross domestic product. Also, this paper examines the relationship between tourism and the gross domestic product in the Nordic countries. This paper confirms the existence of the growing stability of tourism contribution to GDP in the Nordic countries in the observed periods.
Keywords: Tourism; GDP; Nordic Countries; Growth; Stability; Chaos
REFERENCES
Benhabib, J., & Day, R. H. (1981). Rational Choice and Erratic Behaviour. The Review of Economic Studies, 48(3), 459. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297158
Benhabib, J., & Day, R. H. (1982). A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 4, 37-55. https://doi. org/10.1016/0165-1889(82)90002-1
Björk, P., Prebensen, N., Räikkönen, J., & Sundbo, J. (2021). 20 years of Nordic tourism experience research: a review and future research agenda. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 21(1), 26-36. https://doi.org/10.1080/15022250.2020.1857302
Day, R. H. (1982). Irregular Growth Cycles. American Economic Review 72: 406-414.
Day, R. H. (1983). The Emergence of Chaos from Classical Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(2), 201. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885621
Day, R. H. (1997). Complex Economic Dynamics. Volume I: “An introduction to dynamical systems and market mechanism”, Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Vol. 1. 177-178.
Falk, M., Tveteraas, S. L., & Xie, J. (2021). 20 years of Nordic tourism economics research: a review and future research agenda. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 21(1), 78-90. https://doi.org/10.1080/15022250.2020.1833363
Goodwin, R. M. (1990). Chaotic Economic Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198283350.001.0001
Grandmont, J. M. (1985). On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles. Econometrica, 53(5), 995. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911010
Hall, C. M., Müller, D. K., & Saarinen, J. (2008). Nordic Tourism: Issues and Cases. Channel View Publication, Bristol.
IMF. (n. d.). https://www.imf.org/en/Home
IMF. (2021). Country Report No. 21/61, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2021/03/24/Sweden-2021-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-and-Staff-Report-50303
IMF. (2022a). IMF Country Report No. 22/304, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2022/09/16/Norway-2022-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and- Statement-by-the-52355898400221880/1934-7685
IMF. (2022b). Country Report No. 2022/169, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2022/06/15/Denmark-2022-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-519638
IMF. (2023). Country Report No. 2023/038, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/01/20/Finland-2022-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and- Statement-by-the-528423
Jablanovic, V. (2016). A Contribution to the Chaotic Economic Growth Theory. Aracne editrice S.r.l. , Roma .
Jablanovic, V. (2018). The Chaotic Growth Model of the International Tourism Receipts: Euro Area. In Proceedings of Second International Scientific Conference EMAN 2018 Economics & Management: How to Cope With Disrupted Times (pp. 703-717). https://doi. org/10.31410/eman.2018.703
Jablanovic, V. (2019). The Chaotic Growth Model of the Total Consumption Vistor Expenditure: Euro Area. 4 th International Thematic Monograph Modern management tools and of economy of tourism sector in present era. pp.17-31. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, Macedonia. ISBN 978-86-80194-29-5, https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2019.17
Li, T. Y., & Yorke, J. A. (1975). Period Three Implies Chaos. The American Mathematical Monthly, 82(10), 985-992. https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.1975.11994008
Lorenz, E. N. (1963). Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20(2), 130-141. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:dnf>2.0.co;2
Lorenz, H. W. (1993). Nonlinear Dynamical Economics and Chaotic Motion. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-642-78324-1
May, R. (1976). Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics. Nature 261, 459–467. https://doi.org/10.1038/261459a0
Medio, A. (1996). Chaotic dynamics. Theory and applications to economics. Cambridge University Press, In: De Economist 144 (4), 695-698.
OECD Economic Outlook. (2022). OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022, Issue 1: PRELIMINARY VERSION, https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/november-2022/
Saarinen, J. (2013). Nordic Tourism Geographies. Tourism Social Science Series, 35-53. https:// doi.org/10.1108/s1571-5043(2013)0000019003
UNWTO. (2023). ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND SDG, https://www.unwto.org/ tourism-statistics/economic-contribution-SDG
Xie, J., & Tveterås, S. (2020). Economic decline and the birth of a tourist nation. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 20(1), 49-67. https://doi.org/10.1080/15022250.202 0.1719882
Zheng, Y., Mou, N., Zhang, L., Makkonen, T., & Yang, T. (2021). Chinese tourists in Nordic countries: An analysis of spatio-temporal behavior using geo-located travel blog data. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 85, 101561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2020.10156
Keywords: Tourism; GDP; Nordic Countries; Growth; Stability; Chaos
REFERENCES
Benhabib, J., & Day, R. H. (1981). Rational Choice and Erratic Behaviour. The Review of Economic Studies, 48(3), 459. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297158
Benhabib, J., & Day, R. H. (1982). A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 4, 37-55. https://doi. org/10.1016/0165-1889(82)90002-1
Björk, P., Prebensen, N., Räikkönen, J., & Sundbo, J. (2021). 20 years of Nordic tourism experience research: a review and future research agenda. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 21(1), 26-36. https://doi.org/10.1080/15022250.2020.1857302
Day, R. H. (1982). Irregular Growth Cycles. American Economic Review 72: 406-414.
Day, R. H. (1983). The Emergence of Chaos from Classical Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(2), 201. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885621
Day, R. H. (1997). Complex Economic Dynamics. Volume I: “An introduction to dynamical systems and market mechanism”, Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Vol. 1. 177-178.
Falk, M., Tveteraas, S. L., & Xie, J. (2021). 20 years of Nordic tourism economics research: a review and future research agenda. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 21(1), 78-90. https://doi.org/10.1080/15022250.2020.1833363
Goodwin, R. M. (1990). Chaotic Economic Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198283350.001.0001
Grandmont, J. M. (1985). On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles. Econometrica, 53(5), 995. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911010
Hall, C. M., Müller, D. K., & Saarinen, J. (2008). Nordic Tourism: Issues and Cases. Channel View Publication, Bristol.
IMF. (n. d.). https://www.imf.org/en/Home
IMF. (2021). Country Report No. 21/61, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2021/03/24/Sweden-2021-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-and-Staff-Report-50303
IMF. (2022a). IMF Country Report No. 22/304, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2022/09/16/Norway-2022-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and- Statement-by-the-52355898400221880/1934-7685
IMF. (2022b). Country Report No. 2022/169, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2022/06/15/Denmark-2022-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-519638
IMF. (2023). Country Report No. 2023/038, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/01/20/Finland-2022-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and- Statement-by-the-528423
Jablanovic, V. (2016). A Contribution to the Chaotic Economic Growth Theory. Aracne editrice S.r.l. , Roma .
Jablanovic, V. (2018). The Chaotic Growth Model of the International Tourism Receipts: Euro Area. In Proceedings of Second International Scientific Conference EMAN 2018 Economics & Management: How to Cope With Disrupted Times (pp. 703-717). https://doi. org/10.31410/eman.2018.703
Jablanovic, V. (2019). The Chaotic Growth Model of the Total Consumption Vistor Expenditure: Euro Area. 4 th International Thematic Monograph Modern management tools and of economy of tourism sector in present era. pp.17-31. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, Macedonia. ISBN 978-86-80194-29-5, https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2019.17
Li, T. Y., & Yorke, J. A. (1975). Period Three Implies Chaos. The American Mathematical Monthly, 82(10), 985-992. https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.1975.11994008
Lorenz, E. N. (1963). Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20(2), 130-141. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:dnf>2.0.co;2
Lorenz, H. W. (1993). Nonlinear Dynamical Economics and Chaotic Motion. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-642-78324-1
May, R. (1976). Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics. Nature 261, 459–467. https://doi.org/10.1038/261459a0
Medio, A. (1996). Chaotic dynamics. Theory and applications to economics. Cambridge University Press, In: De Economist 144 (4), 695-698.
OECD Economic Outlook. (2022). OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022, Issue 1: PRELIMINARY VERSION, https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/november-2022/
Saarinen, J. (2013). Nordic Tourism Geographies. Tourism Social Science Series, 35-53. https:// doi.org/10.1108/s1571-5043(2013)0000019003
UNWTO. (2023). ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND SDG, https://www.unwto.org/ tourism-statistics/economic-contribution-SDG
Xie, J., & Tveterås, S. (2020). Economic decline and the birth of a tourist nation. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 20(1), 49-67. https://doi.org/10.1080/15022250.202 0.1719882
Zheng, Y., Mou, N., Zhang, L., Makkonen, T., & Yang, T. (2021). Chinese tourists in Nordic countries: An analysis of spatio-temporal behavior using geo-located travel blog data. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 85, 101561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2020.10156
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