Estimating International Tourism Indicators in Context of Macroeconomic Stability and Fiscal Sustainability in the Republic of Serbia
Vera Mirović - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000, Subotica, Serbia
Nataša Pavlović - Tourism Organization of Vojvodina, Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 18, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
Branimir Kalaš - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000, Subotica, Serbia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2022-2023.91
Vera Mirović - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000, Subotica, Serbia
Nataša Pavlović - Tourism Organization of Vojvodina, Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 18, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
Branimir Kalaš - Faculty of Economics in Subotica, University of Novi Sad, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000, Subotica, Serbia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2022-2023.91
7th International Thematic Monograph - Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, Belgrade, 2022/2023, Published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans in cooperation with the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality, Ohrid, North Macedonia; ISSN 2683-5673, ISBN 978-86-80194-56-1 ; Editors: Vuk Bevanda, associate professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia; Snežana Štetić, full time professor, The College of Tourism, Belgrade, Serbia, Printed by: SKRIPTA International, Belgrade
Abstract: The importance of the tourism sector is manifested in the fact that this sector is one of the fastest-growing sectors worldwide. This re- search aims to determine the impact of tourism indicators on the macro- economic and fiscal framework. The subject of the paper includes estimating the effect of international tourism arrivals and international tourism receipts on economic growth, unemployment and fiscal sustainability in the Republic of Serbia for the period 2002-2020. The obtained empirical results show that international tourism categories significantly improve macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability in the Republic of Serbia for the observed period. Based on the empirical findings, policymakers should focus on increasing international tourist arrivals as well as increasing international tourism receipts to provide positive implications for the economic development of our country.
Keywords: Tourism; Macroeconomic stability; Fiscal sustainability; Modelling; Republic of Serbia
REFERENCES
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Khalid, U., Okafor, L. E., & Shafiullah, M. (2019). The Effects of Economic and Financial Crises on International Tourist Flows: A Cross-Country Analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 59(2), 315–334. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287519834360
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Keywords: Tourism; Macroeconomic stability; Fiscal sustainability; Modelling; Republic of Serbia
REFERENCES
Adam, C., Henstridge, M., & Lee, S. (2020). After the lockdown: macroeconomic adjustment to the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(1), S338-S358. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/graa023
Ahmad, N., Menegaki, A. N., & Al‐Muharrami, S. (2020). Systematic literature review of tour- ism growth nexus: An overview of the literature and a content analysis of 100 most influ- ential papers. Journal of Economic Surveys, 34(5), 1-43. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12386 Antonakakis, N., Dragouni, M., Eeckels, B., & Filis, G. (2019). The tourism and economic growth enigma: Examining an ambiguous relationship through multiple prisms. Journal
of Travel Research, 58(1), 3–24. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287517744671
Arslanturk, Y., Balcilar, M., & Ozdemir, Z. A. (2011). Time‐varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 28(1), 664– 671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. econmod.2010.06.003
Băndoi, A., Jianu, E., Enescu, M., Axinte, G., Tudor, S., & Firoiu, D. (2020). The Relationship between Development of Tourism, Quality of Life and Sustainable Performance in EU Countries. Sustainability, 12(4), 1628. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041628
Banerjee, O., Cicowiez, M., Morris, E. J., & Moreda, A. (2018). Boosting tourism’s contribution to growth and development: Analysis of the evidence. Review of Development Economics, 22(3), 1296-1320. https://doi.org/10.111/rode.12385
Bošković, N., Vujičić, M., & Ristić, L. (2019). Sustainable tourism development indicators for mountain destinations in the Republic of Serbia. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(22), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1666807
Bouzahzah, M., & El Menyari, Y. (2013). International tourism and economic growth: the case of Morocco and Tunisia. The Journal of North African Studies, 18(4), 592–607. https://doi.org/1 0.1080/13629387.2013.836321
Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I., & Pulina, M. (2014). Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394–430. https://doi.org/10.10 80/13683500.2013.868414
Brida, J. G., Matesanz Gómez, D., & Segarra, V. (2020). On the empirical relationship between tourism and economic growth. Tourism Management, 81, 104131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. tourman.2020.104131
Chen, J., Cui, F., Balezentis, T., Streimikiene, D., & Jin, H. (2021). What drives international tour- ism development in the Belt and Road Initiative? Journal of Destination Marketing & Man- agement, 19, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2020.100544
Chi, J. (2020). Revisiting the tourism-inequality nexus: evidence from a panel of developed and de- veloping economies. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(6), 755–767. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683 500.2020.1743243
Danish, & Wang, Z. (2018). Dynamic relationship between tourism, economic growth, and environ- mental quality. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(11), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/0966958 2.2018.1526293
Demiröz, D. M., & Ongan, S. (2005). The Contribution of Tourism to the Long-Run Turkish Eco- nomic Growth. Ekonomicky časopis, 15(9), 880-894.
Eyuboglu, S., & Eyuboglu, K. (2019). Tourism development and economic growth: an asymmet- ric panel causality test. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(6), 659–665. https://doi.org/10.1080/13 683500.2019.1588863
Fonseca, N., & Sanchez-Rivero, M. (2020). Publication bias and genuine effects: the case of Grang- er causality between tourism and income. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(9), 1084-1108. https:// doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1585419
Gnangnon, S. K. (2020). Impact of international tourism receipts on public revenue in devel- oped and developing countries. Tourism Review, 75(5), 809–826. https://doi.org/10.1108/ tr-07-2018-0090
Gordon, T., Dadyan, L., & Rueben, K. (2020). State and local government finances in the COVID-19
era. National Tax Journal, 73(3), 733-758. https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2020.3.05
Gričar, S., Bojnec, Š., Karadžić, V., & Backović Vulić, T. (2021). Tourism-led economic growth in Montenegro and Slovenia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. 34(1), 3401-3420. https://doi.org /10.1080/1331677X.2021.1875858
Gunduz, L., & Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 499–504. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500109865
Haller, A.-P., Butnaru, G. I., Hârșan, G.-D. T., & Ştefănică, M. (2020). The relationship between tour- ism and economic growth in the EU-28. Is there a tendency towards convergence? Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2020.1819852 Hoarau, J.-F. (2022). Is international tourism responsible for the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandem- ic? A cross-country analysis with a special focus on small islands. Review of World Econom-
ics, 158, 493-528. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-021-00438-x
Hristov Stančić, B., Đorđević, A., Kovačević, I., & Zečević, B. (2022). Tourism-led economic growth hypothesis – an empirical investigation for Serbia. Teme, 46(1), 251-267. https://doi. org/10.22190/TEME210217014H
Joppe, M. (2018). Tourism policy and governance: Quo vadis? Tourism Management Perspectives, 25, 201–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2017.11.011
Joshi, O., Pudyal, N. C., & Larson, L. R. (2016). The influence of sociopolitical, natural, and cultur- al factors on international tourism growth: a cross-country panel analysis. Environment, De- velopment and Sustainability, 19(3), 825-838. htpps://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-016-9767-x
Kadir, N., & Karim, M. Z. A. (2012). Tourism and Economic Growth in Malaysia: Evidence from Tourist Arrivals from Asean-5 Countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 25(4), 1089–1100. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2012.1151755
Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., & Pavlović, N. (2019). Profitability determinants of hotel industry in AP Vo- jvodina. Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era (47–62). https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2019.47
Khalid, U., Okafor, L. E., & Shafiullah, M. (2019). The Effects of Economic and Financial Crises on International Tourist Flows: A Cross-Country Analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 59(2), 315–334. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287519834360
Khan, A., Bibi, S., Ardito, L., Lyu, J., Hayat, H., & Arif, A. M. (2020). Revisiting the Dynamics of Tourism, Economic Growth, and Environmental Pollutants in the Emerging Economies – Sustainable Tourism Policy Implications. Sustainability, 12(6), 2533. http://doi.org/10.3390/ su12062533
Kim, H. J., Chen, M. H., & Jang, S. C. (2006). Tourism expansion and economic develop- ment: The case of Taiwan. Tourism Management, 27(5), 925–933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. tourman.2005.05.011
Kyara, V. C., Rahman, M. M., & Khanam, R. (2021). Tourism expansion and economic growth in Tanzania: A causality analysis. Heliyon, 7(5), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021. e06966
Lean, H. H., & Tang, C. F. (2010). Is the tourism‐led growth hypothesis stable for Malaysia? A note.
International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(4), 375–378. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.759 Lee, C.-C., & Chang, C.-P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: a closer look at
panels. Tourism Management, 29, 180–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.02.013 Lee, C. G. (2021). Tourism‐led growth hypothesis: International tourism versus domestic tourism‐
Evidence from China. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(5), 881-890. https://doi. org/10.1002/jtr.2450
Li, K. X., Jin, M., & Shi, W. (2018). Tourism as an important impetus to promoting econom- ic growth: A critical review. Tourism Management Perspectives, 26, 135–142. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.tmp.2017.10.002
Majeed, M. T., & Mazhar, M. (2021). Managing economic growth through tourism: Does volatility
of tourism matter? Decision, 48(1), 49–69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40622-020-00259-1 Maneejuk, P., Yamaka, W., & Srichaikul, W. (2022). Tourism Development and Economic Growth
in Southeast Asian Countries under the Presence of Structural Break: Panel Kink with GME Estimator. Mathematics, 10(5), 723. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10050723
Milićević, S., Bošković, N., & Lakićević, M. (2021). Sustainable tourism development in mountain areas in Šumadija and Western Serbia. Journal of Mountain Science, 18(3), 735–748. https:// doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6239-4
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